Snowden’s mare to wear it well in Mares’ Novice
WITH one of the driest build-ups to a Cheltenham festival on record, it had been widely expected that this year’s meeting would take place on traditional decent watered spring ground.
In fact, the watering cans have been out for the last four weeks in an attempt to produce that easier surface.
All that has changed in the last seven days, with not just plenty of rain, but a very unsettled forecast for the week ahead.
That means that the best four days in the racing calendar will get underway on ground no better than soft, and if forecasts are to be believed, potentially even worse than that.
There are still some opportunities in the ante-post betting markets to take advantage of such potentially tough conditions should they materialise.
A race that catches the eye is Thursday’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (4.50pm) which, for the first three years of its existence, seemed to be a favourite-backers benefit.
Limini, Let’s Dance and Laurina were all well-fancied Willie Mullins-trained mares who got the job done.
Since then, the flashy well-fancied types have struggled, with the race tending to go to those more equipped with stamina than speed.
Concertista (2020) and last year’s winner Love Envoi were definitely staying types.
It is clear to see why Nicky Henderson’s Luccia and Willie Mullins’ Ashroe Diamond head the betting for the Grade Two prize, but this could present a very different test to them both.
Racing switches to the New Course on Thursday and the long run-in from the last tends to favour those with the necessary stamina reserves.
I’ve been really taken with Jamie Snowden’s YOU WEAR IT WELL this season and she looks to have all the relevant attributes.
She showed plenty of speed over two miles earlier in the season but has showed plenty of grit and toughness in her two most recent assignments.
Conditions were atrocious at Newbury for the Challow Hurdle back in December, where she was the only one to put up any sort of a fight against Hermes Allen, running all the way to the line.
At Sandown last time, she quickened up nicely to beat her own sex and comes here in rude health.
She can be backed at 10/1 each-way with William Hill, and I expect that price to disappear should conditions worsen.
It is hard to know what the ground will be like come Friday because Cheltenham dries out so quickly at this time of year if the rain stops.
However, my selection in the very last race of the meeting is pretty versatile when it comes to ground.
COOL SURVIVOR is trained by Gordon Elliott, who spent his formative years under the tutelage of Martin Pipe, the legendary trainer after who the Conditional Jockeys’ race is named after.
The stable have won it in the past with similar staying types dropping back in trip from three miles.
Both Champagne Classic (2017) and Blow By Blow (2018) carried the same Gigginstown silks as my selection, and Column Of Fire would have surely won in 2020 but for falling at the last.
Stamina will be a huge asset for Cool Survivor if conditions get tough, yet he showed plenty of speed when winning over this trip at Punchestown back in October.
He looks too big a price each-way at 15/2 with BetUK.
POINTERS
You Wear It Well e/w 10/1 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Thursday)
Cool Survivor e/w 15/2 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (Friday)