We’re seeing respectable growth for a New Normal but real risks still remain January 28, 2014 UK ECONOMIC growth is looking up. The 0.7 per cent GDP increase in the fourth quarter of 2013 might not have been as strong as some commentators were expecting, but it means economic activity is up a full 2.8 per cent on a year ago. It’s not as strong as the 3.3 per cent growth [...]
How Bank of England heavyweights criticised their own policy, 20 years early January 17, 2014 It's taken the Bank of England four years to get inflation back to target – but many think the Monetary Policy Committee is looking in the wrong place entirely. In fact, the committee's own members seem to have agreed. A comment at the market monetarist blog Britmouse documents how members of the Bank of England's [...]
A few simple questions for Osborne, Labour and the coalition January 16, 2014 IT is a moral imperative for all politicians to seek to help those on low incomes. Poverty is a horrible, depressing, truly heart-breaking condition. But what is the best way to help the working poor? One approach focuses on policies that promote economic growth, job creation, productivity growth and social mobility, combined with much lower [...]
Inflation at target after four years riding high January 14, 2014 INFLATION finally fell back to its two per cent target in December, official data showed yesterday, after more than four years of running too high. The drop from 2.1 per cent will help Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s credibility, boosting his reputation as inflation has dropped since he took the role in the summer. [...]
Mark Carney is going to be very happy about this chart January 14, 2014 Inflation is finally at the Bank of England's target – and it only took four years to get there. So we expect that the Bank's (still relatively new to the job) governor Mark Carney will be pretty pleased by this chart of falling annual consumer price inflation: This morning Societe Generale's Kit Juckes [...]
Inflation falls to 2pc target for first time in four years January 14, 2014 Inflation is finally at target. Prices rose by just two per cent in the year to December, after inflation dropped from 2.2 per cent to 2.1 per cent in November. Analysts had expected no change. Inflation had been above the Bank of England two per cent target every month since December 2009. The largest contributions [...]
London Report: Retailers reveal where tills rang for Christmas January 12, 2014 RETAILERS are expected to reveal where UK shoppers showed their Christmas cheer, with a round of results in contrast to last week’s gloomy December tidings. Figures out this week from retailers such as Argos, Asos, Dixons, Ocado and Primark are expected to show increased sales. The successes are in contrast to the sales dips seen [...]
A two-speed high street January 9, 2014 A CLEAR split between Britain’s winners and losers in the battle for consumers’ cash this Christmas emerged yesterday, as three of the biggest retail chains revealed worse-than-expected trading. Poor results from Tesco, Morrisons and Marks & Spencer added to dreary updates from Sainsbury’s and Mothercare, with heavy discounting, weak consumer spending and the rising discount [...]
Deflation grips shops through Christmas sales January 7, 2014 SHOP prices dropped at the fastest pace for at least seven years this Christmas, as retailers struggled to capitalise on 2013’s increasing consumer confidence. According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Nielsen, shop prices slipped by 0.8 per cent during December, driven by a 2.3 per cent drop in non-food prices. Retailers have now [...]
Monetary Policy: Why 2014 should be a turning point for western economies January 5, 2014 SINCE the 1970s, years ending with a 4 have seen turning points in the global economy and had a particular significance for central bankers. This year is the fortieth anniversary of 1974. This was the most turbulent post-war year for the major western economies before the global financial crisis. The first recession in the global [...]