London mayor Sadiq Khan says it is vital government devolves more commuter routes to TfL after GTR franchise slammed as worst on rail network January 10, 2018 Sadiq Khan today said it was “vital” the government devolves more commuter routes to Transport for London (TfL) to tackle the “terrible services inflicted on London rail passengers”. His comments were in response to a new National Audit Office report, which found passengers on the Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern (TSGN) franchise suffered the worst [...]
US non-farm payrolls: Dollar dives against pound and the euro after jobs figures disappoint (GBPUSD) January 5, 2018 The US created just 148,000 jobs last month, way below expectations of 190,000, official figures have shown. The closely-watched non-farm payroll figure came in far lower than the 252,000 jobs created in November, taking economists by surprise after encouraging private sector jobs numbers. Meanwhile, unemployment stuck at 4.1 per cent, its lowest since December 2000, [...]
Are markets too complacent about the US economy? January 3, 2018 The status of the US as the world’s most dynamic and important single country economy remains intact, not least among investors. Its strengths are now very much reflected in financial market valuations. This is evident in stocks, with the US having been at the vanguard of a multi-year bull run, while bond yields have reached [...]
DEBATE: Will Donald Trump’s overhaul of the US tax code be beneficial to the American economy? December 21, 2017 Will Trump’s overhaul of the US tax code be beneficial to the American economy? David Hawkins, managing director of Cliveden Family Office and former board member of Republicans Overseas, says YES. The Trump administration’s competitiveness agenda implements the greatest reform to personal, small business and corporate taxation in the US since 1986. Not since Ronald [...]
The year in sterling (GBPUSD): Theresa May’s election shocks, Mark Carney’s rising rates, and Brexit, Brexit, Brexit December 19, 2017 It was a brave trader betting on sterling at the start of the year. Economists were fearful for the British economy as 2016’s dramatic fall in the pound fed through to surging inflation; Theresa May was still a novice as Prime Minister; and the Brexit process had not yet truly begun. Brexit has – as [...]
With or without a Santa Rally, the FTSE 100 looks a sick man compared to its peers December 18, 2017 Over the past 25 years global markets have become accustomed to what is affectionately known as the Santa Rally in the final weeks before Christmas. This year, however, the FTSE 100 appears unlikely to have its spirits lifted by Christmas joy. In 18 of the past 25 years, the FTSE 100 index has rallied by [...]
Bitcoin and the United States of Europe: “Grey swan” events of 2018 predicted by Nomura bank December 18, 2017 Beloved by WPP boss Sir Martin Sorrell and many others in the business world, swans in various hues are employed as metaphors for forecasting the future. A black swan event is completely unpredictable and totally out of the blue. But a grey swan, on the other hand, is more foreseeable. And Japanese bank Nomura has [...]
A financial crisis in 2018? The danger signs are starting to emerge December 15, 2017 It is 10 years since the last financial crisis, and it has taken that long for normality to return. For the first time since the crisis, major economies are expanding together. Unemployment rates in the US and UK economies have halved. However, productivity and investment growth has been on a declining trend in major economies. [...]
Donald Trump blow after Alabama vote: The dollar has held steady after Democrat Doug Jones beat Republican Roy Moore to a Senate seat (USDGBP, USDEUR) December 13, 2017 The dollar weakened only slightly overnight, despite Donald Trump being dealt a hefty blow in a US Senate vote. Although Trump had publicly supported Republican Roy Moore in the race to gain the US Senate seat for Alabama, Democrat Doug Jones won. It will be the first time a Democrat has held the seat for [...]
US non-farm payrolls: The US added 228,000 new jobs in November ahead of crucial Fed meeting December 8, 2017 The US added 228,000 new jobs in November. The data comes ahead of an important Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for next week, where it is expected to raise rates to their highest level in more than nine years. The consensus expectation was for November non-farm payrolls to increase by 198,000, which would represent a significant [...]