The “79 per cent chance” the Santa Rally is real December 3, 2018 Stock markets have risen in 79 per cent of Decembers over the last three decades adding some substance to the myth of the “Santa Rally”, Schroders research has found. The “Santa Rally” is a supposed effect of the Christmas feel-good factor, helping stock markets rise at the end of the year, although many seasoned investors remain [...]
UK banks can pat themselves on the back, but the system is still feeling the stress November 30, 2018 Breathe a sigh of relief: once again, all financial institutions have passed the Bank of England’s annual stress tests. But look beneath the surface, and suddenly the various allowances made this week start to undermine the good news. First, if the impact of the new accounting standard IFRS 9 that came into force in January was [...]
Editor’s Notes: Check back in with the forecasters in 2033 November 30, 2018 The Treasury’s Brexit scenarios, released this week, boiled down to a claim – made with pinpoint accuracy – that the Prime Minister’s deal will leave the UK economy 3.9 per cent smaller in 15 years, compared with staying in the EU. In other news, PwC estimates that artificial intelligence will increase UK GDP by 10.3 [...]
Big ambitions and grand challenges: How the industrial strategy fares one year on November 29, 2018 It’s now a year since the industrial strategy was launched. Encompassing a 255-page tome, it laid five foundations for productivity: ideas, people, infrastructure, places and the business environment. It promised waves of sector deals between government and industry to de-risk investment and improve workers’ skills. Six such deals were announced in the first year, from automotive [...]
Germany steps in to give UK financial services timely Brexit boost November 29, 2018 UK financial services firms could be allowed to keep operating in Germany following a no-deal Brexit after the German Treasury took matters into its own hands amid growing uncertainty. Draft law changes proposed last week could allow UK-based firms providing cross-border financial services to continue to operate in Germany until the end of 2020. The [...]
The pound falls as May warns Parliament rejecting her Brexit deal would kickstart no-deal preparations November 29, 2018 The pound has fallen to a weekly low against the euro this morning as Theresa May was grilled by a Commons committee over her Brexit deal. The Prime Minister defended her withdrawal agreement in front of the House of Commons liaison committee just a day after the Bank of England's bleak no-deal forecast, in which [...]
Bottoms up: Greene King heralds heatwave as profits and revenue grow in World Cup year November 29, 2018 Shares in pub owner Greene King ticked up in early morning trading as investors welcomed growing like-for-like sales in its pubs across the UK after a sweltering summer saw drink sales swell. The figures Statutory profit before tax grew 3.2 per cent to £127.7m in the pub chain’s half-year results, compared to the same six [...]
Mortgage approvals rise to nine-month high while consumer borrowing growth slows, says Bank of England November 29, 2018 Mortgage approvals rose to a surprising nine-month high last month, while consumer borrowing increased at its slowest pace since May 2015, the Bank of England said today. While the Bank said mortgage market activity was “broadly stable” in October, households borrowed an extra £4.1bn against their homes and the number of mortgages approved rose to [...]
MPs grill Prime Minister Theresa May over risk of no-deal Brexit November 29, 2018 Prime Minister Theresa May asked MPs to “focus on the choice that lies in front of them” this morning, declining to speculate on what would happen if her Brexit deal is voted down by parliament next month. May’s draft withdrawal agreement will be put to a parliamentary vote on 11 December, with the UK facing [...]
Carney defends analysis after Bank of England no-deal Brexit forecast whips up national frenzy November 29, 2018 Mark Carney has defended the Bank of England's no-deal Brexit scenarios which yesterday warned GDP, houses prices and the pound would plummet, whipping up a national frenzy. The Bank's governor reiterated the no-deal analysis was a “worst case Brexit scenario” with a very low probability. He told the BBC Today programme: “It's not what's most likely [...]