Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty? April 12, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially. At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events. Hughes came up with three possible [...]
UK growth in February smashes low expectations April 11, 2025 The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month. UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]
Bank of England’s postponement of bond sale is a ‘precaution’ April 10, 2025 The Bank of England’s decision to postpone the sale of long-dated bonds to after June following market volatility was a “precaution”, according to deputy governor Sarah Breeden. President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent markets around the world into a state of panic as 30-year gilt yields surged to its highest level since 1998, pushing up borrowing [...]
Bank of England should be ‘more careful’ about rate cuts, say deputy governor April 10, 2025 A Bank of England rate-setter has said that policymakers need to be “more careful” about cutting rates after years of high inflation, adding that it was “too soon to say” whether President Trump’s tariffs will weigh on price growth in the UK. Sarah Breeden became the second official since Trump’s Rose Garden speech to take [...]
Stats body aims to publish key jobs data in late 2026 April 10, 2025 The UK’s official statistics body has set a target of November 2026 for the reform of its flagship Labour Force Survey (LFS), which monitors the UK jobs market. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has been dogged by several troubles in data gathering, prompting criticism from the Bank of England as well as an intervention [...]
Exclusive: Former Bank of England policymaker calls for interest rates to be held amid high inflation April 10, 2025 A former Bank of England rate-setter has suggested that high inflation levels call for interest rates to be held at 4.5 per cent in May. The majority of investors and analysts are expecting the Bank to cut interest rates next month to ease low growth concerns, with up to three more cuts priced in until [...]
Nikhil Rathi reappointed FCA chief April 10, 2025 Nikhil Rathi will be chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) for another five years, leading it on its new directive from the government to slash unnecessary and duplicated regulation, the Chancellor has confirmed. Rathi—a former Treasury mandarin and chief executive of the London Stock Exchange—will serve another five-year term as the boss of [...]
Deutsche Bank: The market has ‘lost faith’ in US assets April 9, 2025 A “remarkable” sell-off in the dollar and US Treasuries suggests global markets have lost faith in American assets, and risks sparking an “outright financial war” that could force the Federal Reserve into another round of quantitative easing, Deutsche Bank’s top FX analyst has warned. In a wide-ranging note on Wednesday, George Saravelos said that the [...]
US tariffs: Reeves stresses ‘imperative’ to improve UK-EU trading relations April 9, 2025 Rachel Reeves has stressed it is “imperative” for the UK to improve its trading relationship with the European Union (EU), amid US President Donald Trump’s global trade tariff war. The Chancellor’s comments emerged in an interview with the Financial Times (FT) ahead of a crucial summit with EU leaders in London next month. Reeves told [...]
City slashes UK growth forecasts radically in wake of Trump tariffs April 9, 2025 City forecasters have radically cut UK growth forecasts as President Donald Trump’s tariffs are widely expected to cause great damage to the global economy. Markets across Europe are sliding again today after tariffs came into effect, a clear sign that economists and investors are fearing hits to profit. New research by the polling firm Consensus [...]