The worst may be over, but the UK’s return to growth could be painful May 25, 2009 THE WORST is now over for the UK economy, but the path back to growth will be slow and painful, according to an increasing number of economists. While last week’s GDP figures confirmed the UK economy shrank 1.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter – its sharpest [...]
ANALYST VIEWS: DO YOU EXPECT THE UK ECONOMY TO STEADILY IMPROVE FROM HERE? May 25, 2009 AMIT KARA UBSWe expect economic activity in the UK to expand by 1.1 per cent in 2010 instead of our earlier above-consensus forecast of 0.6 per cent. The UK will see an export-led recovery, which should benefit sectors such as pharmaceuticals, chemicals, aircraft manufacture and financial services. PHILIP SHAW INVESTECWe have revised up our GDP [...]
THE OPTIMIST May 25, 2009 THE recession is close to an end, in our view. Markets, commentators and, for that matter, central banks, are too pessimistic about how soon recovery might start and how strong it might be. The continued improvement in the cyclical indicators, the more recognisable nature of the recession and the proportionate, or more than proportionate, policy [...]
THE PESSIMIST May 25, 2009 WHILE the UK economy may have passed the absolute low point of this recession, any recovery is likely to be built on pretty fragile foundations. The key message from previous cycles is that, whatever their shape, full recoveries from UK recessions tend to take a long time. Even in the V-shaped downturn of the late [...]
EUROPEAN REPORT May 25, 2009 EUROPEAN shares closed higher yesterday with Sanofi Aventis leading pharmaceuticals higher after winning a US contract, and some analysts choosing to interpret a leading German economic survey positively. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares rose 0.3 per cent to a provisional close of 858.57 points, after two sessions of losses. But trade was [...]
MARTIN ON THE MARKETS May 25, 2009 THE FTSE 100 managed to finish positive last week, even after the threat that the UK’s S&P AAA credit rating may be removed. Nevertheless we can expect some mediocre profit-taking this morning. Later in the week we have a host of key US economic indicators such as durable goods and new home sales on Thursday [...]
Uncertainty over dividend payments could see defensive shares back on top May 25, 2009 MARKS & Spencer was hit by shareholder anger last week after it confirmed a widely flagged decision to slash its dividend payout to shareholders by one third. It saw its shares dive to the bottom of the FTSE 100, wiping 8 per cent off the share price in just one day. The price has continued [...]
US economic data in focus to pull US markets up May 25, 2009 WALL Street may feel more pressure this week unless a raft of economic data, including consumer confidence, home sales and gross domestic product (GDP), restores the optimism that had driven a two-month rally before fading last week. Investors cited the potential bankruptcy of General Motors as a concern, as further job losses could imperil the [...]
SPOTLIGHT ON SMALL CAPS May 25, 2009 THE greatest bugbear of the year for Aim investors, at least on the face of it, has been the exodus of companies from the junior market as more and more are forced to delist amid the economic turmoil. But as the number of firms on Aim continues to fall back, many small cap experts are [...]
Gloucs eye Aussie Clark May 21, 2009 CRICKET: Gloucestershire are hoping to sign Australian paceman Stuart Clark before the start of the Ashes series. The 33-year-old is being seen as short-term cover for New Zealand all-rounder James Franklin, who is on World Twenty20 duty in June.
