Europe’s economy is booming but its politics risk boiling over February 15, 2018 Could European political instability derail its economic recovery? It’s a question plenty of people in the markets are asking themselves at the moment. Germany remains without a functioning government. Martin Schultz, leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) resigned on Tuesday despite – or because of – reaching agreement with Angela Merkel to enter a [...]
The Bank of England will almost certainly hike rates in May February 14, 2018 The question of the next rise in UK interest rates has shifted definitively from if to when. Last week an uncharacteristically hawkish press conference by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney left the markets in little doubt that it could come as early as May. At the start of the week the probability of [...]
Can you make sense of what is going on in the equities markets? February 13, 2018 If you can make sense of what is going on in equities markets right now you’ll make a fortune. After falling 2,000 points earlier in the week, Wall Street staged a bit of a recovery on Friday. That spurred on Asian and then European markets on Monday, which in turn once again fed into Wall [...]
Brexit lurks behind the Bank of England’s sudden hawkishness February 12, 2018 Has the Bank of England developed a bit of a personality disorder? Looking at the mixed signals given by the Bank in the last six months, you might be forgiven for thinking so. The Bank’s Governor Mark Carney has a habit of keeping the markets guessing – something City analysts suspect he enjoys – and [...]
Brexit talks need direction of travel by June or the banks will leave the City February 8, 2018 According to one of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) most senior regulators, British-based banks are running out of time to guarantee they have continued access to the single market. Sabine Lautenschläger, an ECB board member, said any British bank wanting to relocate to the euro area “should really have submitted its license application already”, and [...]
Global markets are correcting not crashing February 7, 2018 When it came, the correction looked brutal: $4 trillion wiped off global stocks in a single day. But let’s not get carried away here. This was a correction rather than a rout whatever the newspapers might have us believe. The Dow Jones is still up 21% compared with the same time a year ago. The [...]
Lloyds ban on credit card Bitcoin purchases is the right move February 6, 2018 On Monday, Lloyds Banking Group announced it has banned its credit cards from being used to buy Bitcoin. The decision includes Lloyds Bank, Bank of Scotland, Halifax and MBNA credit cards. It follows a similar move by US banks. It’s a hard decision to argue with. Regardless of the inherent volatility in the value of [...]
Britain already has a free trade deal with China, leaving Europe won’t improve it February 5, 2018 Between 1839 and 1841 and then again between 1856 and 1860, the British Empire launched a series of military engagements against China. The cause? A trade imbalance between two of the biggest superpowers in the world. Demand in Britain for Chinese goods including silk, porcelain and tea was huge. It created an enormous trade imbalance [...]
Wall Street may be calming down after its month long rally February 1, 2018 Wall Street’s bull run had been due a reality check for weeks. Yet when it eventually came, the only surprise was its speed and scale. The trigger was that time-honoured red flag – an analyst note which prompted US traders to question their recent run of frothy exuberance. On Monday morning, Goldman Sachs warned that [...]
Sir Humphrey’s conclusion – Brexit is going to hurt after all January 31, 2018 The famously verbose Sir Humphrey – the civil servant star of Yes Minister – was a master at sugarcoating things. Yet his real life equivalents – Whitehall’s top civil servants – pulled no punches in a leaked analysis of the impact Brexit will have on Britain’s economy. The searing assessment imagined a worst-case scenario and [...]
