UK to shake off mild recession by end of this year, City analyst predicts January 16, 2023 The UK economy will experience a very mild recession and could be out of it by the end of this year, a top City economist has forecast. International energy prices have marched back down the steep hill they climbed after Russian president Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February last year. On some measures, [...]
London outperforms UK economy again in sign capital could swerve recession January 16, 2023 London is outperforming the nationwide economy, indicating the capital is on course to avoid what experts think will be a long recession in the UK, a new survey out today shows. An index of business output in London compiled by NatWest jumped to 50.2 last month, up from 48.2, meaning the capital’s economy is growing. [...]
Week ahead: First data dump of 2023 to reveal whether UK tipped into recession January 15, 2023 The first big data dump of 2023 in the coming week is set to unveil more clues on whether the UK economy entered a recession in the final months of last year. City traders are hoping fresh inflation figures out on Wednesday from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will show price pressures are still [...]
Bank of England makes £3.8bn profit from Liz Truss mini budget bond sales January 12, 2023 The Bank of England has trousered £3.8bn in profits from ditching bonds it hoovered up to stem financial chaos caused by Liz Truss’s calamitous mini-budget, the central bank told City A.M. The Bank announced today it has ditched all the £19.3bn of gilts purchased last autumn to stabilise the UK debt market. Governor Andrew Bailey [...]
Bank of England to hike interest rates to lower peak but still to financial crisis high January 12, 2023 The Bank of England will lift interest rates to a much lower peak than expected just a matter of months ago, but is still set to send them to their steepest level since the financial crisis, City traders suspect. Markets reckon borrowing costs will peak at below 4.5 per cent, meaning investors think the Bank [...]
Global economy ‘perilously close’ to recession after aggressive rate hikes to tame inflation January 10, 2023 The global economy “is perilously close to falling into recession” after central banks across the world have collectively raised interest rates aggressively to tame roaring inflation, one of the globe’s top economic institutions has warned. World GDP will expand just 1.7 per cent this year, a slump beaten only by the Covid-19 pandemic and financial [...]
Pantheon: Investment slump on Bank of England’s rate hikes will deepen UK recession January 10, 2023 The UK recession is set to be powered by businesses slashing investment due to higher interest rates squeezing their finances, City economists have warned. Finance chiefs are “despondent” amid a rapid acceleration in borrowing costs caused by the Bank of England scrambling to tame sky high inflation, Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, [...]
Inflation wipes out Christmas sales as Britain stumbles toward recession January 10, 2023 Inflation is forcing Brits to rein in spending to shield their finances, prompting experts today to warn of a rise in high street bankruptcies as the country stumbles into a recession. Retail sales fell in real terms over the Christmas period, when consumers tend to splash the cash on food, new clothes and decorations, according [...]
Sunak and Starmer offer little new year cheer on ailing UK growth path January 10, 2023 This brand new weekly column, published every Tuesday, will drill down into the stories behind the numbers to reveal what makes the UK – and global – economy tick. But, today, inspired by what resembled soon-to-broken new year’s resolutions by political leaders last week, it will make the case for why a stable government economic [...]
Bank of England chief economist Pill admits we ‘underestimated’ inflation surge January 9, 2023 The Bank of England did not understand inflation “well enough” and “underestimated” the strength of the 40-year high price surge, its chief economist admitted in a speech in the US today. Huw Pill said with “the benefit of hindsight,” the central bank’s “own analysis” failed to foresee inflationary pressures magnified by global supply chain pressures [...]