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      The devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances

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UK inflation

  • Record temperatures boost Sainsbury’s sales but store infrastructure feels the heat

    Retail

    Sainsbury’s recorded a rise in sales in the first financial quarter, as the May heatwave and a run of public holidays boosted sales but caused its fridges and freezers to break down. Total sales rose 3.1 per cent year on year to £3.1bn, bolstered by a five per cent hike in fresh food purchases, as [...]

    In June, the grocer struck a deal for Natwest to acquire most of Sainsbury’s Bank.
  • Bank of England chief economist ‘not trying to be a troublemaker’ on rates split

    Economics

    The Bank of England’s chief economist has warned fellow policymakers over the risk of becoming “complacent” towards the cost of living as he defends his recent calls to hike interest rates.  Huw Pill, a member of the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, has voted twice to increase rates to 4 per cent in the committee’s [...]

    Chief economist Huw Pill said "consistency" was key to the Bank of England's quantitative tightening programme (Photo by: Graeme Sloan/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
  • Interest rates set to be held as inflation to remain ‘elevated’ despite Iran peace deal

    Economics

    Interest rates are expected to be left unchanged as Bank of England policymakers wait to find out whether the Iran war peace deal holds up.  The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is set to keep interest rates at 3.75 per cent at a decision later this week. Its decision would suggest that the Bank is [...]

    For the first time in months, economists are unsure whether the Bank of England will cut interest rates.
  • Reeves’ savings package to have minimal impact on inflation rise

    May 29, 2026

    A discount campaign launched by Chancellor Rachel Reeves will “shave off” an expected rise in inflation, analysis has suggested, as economists have raised concern over Britons’ inflation expectations.  Reeves’ move to delay a hike in fuel duty beyond September and offer VAT relief for businesses giving families reduced prices could strip 0.2 percentage points off [...]

  • FTSE 100 Live: Stocks inch back up; UK faces energy bills warning

    March 4, 2026

    Good morning and welcome back to the City AM liveblog. Yesterday, Rachel Reeves delivered her Spring Statement. The Chancellor wheeled out new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility that cut growth for 2026 but – albeit modestly – upgraded it for the years to come. But forecasts were quickly labelled out of date by [...]

  • Inflation eases to three per cent boosting interest rate cut hopes

    February 18, 2026

    Inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly a year last month, new figures show, giving a further boost to hopes that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in March.  The headline rate dipped to 3.0 per cent in January, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), down from 3.4 per cent [...]

  • Bank of England to avoid signalling faster interest rate cuts

    February 4, 2026

    The Bank of England will not signal a faster pace of interest rate cuts over the coming months to combat jobs market woes across the UK economy, with some economists fearing it could send markets mixed messages on monetary policy.  Markets expect interest rates to be held at 3.75 per cent on Thursday due to [...]

  • New Years optimism wears off as economic expectations drop 

    February 4, 2026

    New Year’s optimism is beginning to fall away with the number of people expecting the economy to improve this year falling at the start of February. According to the latest City AM/Freshwater Strategy poll of UK voters, the number of people expecting the economy to improve in the next 12 months has fallen by four [...]

  • UK inflation overshoots forecasts in cost of living warning

    January 21, 2026

    Inflation overshot forecasts pencilled in by economists, sending the Bank of England a warning on their steady pace of interest rate cuts. New data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has shown consumer price index (CPI) inflation, the headline measure for price growth, hitting 3.4 per cent in the year to December.  Economists [...]

  • Budget uncertainty dampens November spending

    December 19, 2025

    Black Friday discounts failed to significantly boost consumer spending in November, as Budget uncertainty kept shoppers away from the high street. Sales declined 0.1 per cent last month, following a 0.9 per cent fall in October, as households opted to hold off spending in the run up to Christmas and wait to see the outcome [...]

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