Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty? April 12, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially. At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events. Hughes came up with three possible [...]
UK growth in February smashes low expectations April 11, 2025 The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month. UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]
Layoffs creating bigger pool of jobseekers, recruiters say April 11, 2025 More people were added to the large pool of jobseekers in March than at any point since the pandemic, according to recruiters, as high levels of redundancies are driving a “steeper rise” in staff availability. Employers have come under greater strain in the months since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ announced a £25bn national insurance tax raid [...]
Bank of England’s postponement of bond sale is a ‘precaution’ April 10, 2025 The Bank of England’s decision to postpone the sale of long-dated bonds to after June following market volatility was a “precaution”, according to deputy governor Sarah Breeden. President Donald Trump’s tariffs sent markets around the world into a state of panic as 30-year gilt yields surged to its highest level since 1998, pushing up borrowing [...]
Cabinet Office to shed 2,100 jobs as government shrinks civil service April 10, 2025 The Cabinet Office will lose almost a third of its staff as Labour seeks to shrink the civil service, the government has announced. Around 1,200 jobs will go through redundancies and leavers not being replaced under plans unveiled to civil servants on Thursday, with another 900 transferred to other departments. The 2,100 job cuts represent [...]
UK-India trade deal reportedly 90 per cent agreed, businesses told April 10, 2025 The UK’s trade deal with India is reportedly 90 per cent agreed, businesses have been told, according to a report in the Guardian. Firms were informed on a call with trade negotiators this week that some remaining issues included cars, pharmaceutical drugs and the whisky trade, the newspaper reported, with India currently the largest overseas [...]
Starmer says UK government must ‘rise to the moment’ on tariffs April 10, 2025 The UK government needs to “rise to the moment”, Sir Keir Starmer said, adding that he would not “pretend” US President Donald Trump’s tariffs are “good news”. Speaking this morning after Trump announced a 90-day pause in his sweeping global tariffs, while raising his tax rate on Chinese imports to 125 per cent, the Prime [...]
UK private equity deals crash to pandemic lows April 10, 2025 UK private equity deals crashed to their lowest level since 2020 in the first quarter of this year, as a tepid IPO market and geopolitical uncertainty continued to hamper dealmaking. There were only 320 private equity deals in the first quarter of 2025, totalling £18bn, compared to 534 deals totalling £28.2bn in the quarter before, [...]
Exclusive: Former Bank of England policymaker calls for interest rates to be held amid high inflation April 10, 2025 A former Bank of England rate-setter has suggested that high inflation levels call for interest rates to be held at 4.5 per cent in May. The majority of investors and analysts are expecting the Bank to cut interest rates next month to ease low growth concerns, with up to three more cuts priced in until [...]
Exclusive: City firms matched with UK diplomats in growth push April 10, 2025 Top City firms including Big Four consultancies are hosting Foreign Office diplomats as part of the department’s efforts to become the “salesforce for UK plc”. More than 100 diplomats and representatives from professional services firms, including KPMG and EY, have been paired up in a bid to improve British business representation overseas. The scheme was [...]