Trump’s tariffs to cause pandemic-level fall in trade April 14, 2025 President Donald Trump’s tariffs are set to knock trillions of dollars off world GDP, fresh forecasts suggest, as businesses reel from major disruption to global trading patterns. A spate of new tariffs on goods ranging from European cars to Chinese toys will take the US’ effective tariff rate from 2.5 per cent to over 20 [...]
Reeves held responsible as marginal growth expected April 8, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves has had to watch the UK economy trudge along since she took up residence at 11 Downing Street. But even more bad news has been forecast to come before another lot this summer, and potentially no better news later this year. This Friday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is poised to [...]
A low-spend way Labour can actually increase GDP? Boost morale! March 29, 2025 Consumer confidence has become a casual predictor of GDP. Labour can use this to their advantage, writes JL Partners' Callum Hunter.
UK growth nearly stagnant in last quarter of 2024 March 28, 2025 The UK economy barely grew in the final quarter of 2024 as estimates remained unchanged, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has vowed to deliver growth “further and faster”. But Reeves has faced a rocky start as GDP only grew by 0.1 per cent between October and December. Previous [...]
Analysis: Why Reeves faces political pressure over the Spring Statement March 25, 2025 Over the next 24 hours, Rachel Reeves will be putting the finishing touches to Wednesday’s Spring Statement. It marks her second fiscal event as Chancellor, and – despite the promised manifesto commitment of “one major fiscal event a year” – the economic backdrop, and wider political pressure, makes it hard to see the contents of [...]
The bond markets must not be allowed block defence spending March 19, 2025 The Germans are funding increased defence spending through debt so why can’t we? The Chancellor needs to start telling a better story about the future direction of our economy, says Paul Ormerod President Trump wants European countries to spend five per cent of GDP on defence. Kier Starmer plans to increase UK spending from 2.3 [...]
No 10 says Donald Trump’s tariffs not responsible for UK economy shrinking March 14, 2025 Donald Trump’s tariffs are not responsible for the UK economy shrinking in January, Downing Street has said, in a position that appears to contradict the Chancellor’s reaction to the latest poor economic figures. According to the latest set of gross domestic product (GDP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the economy shrank [...]
GDP shrinks in January as UK economy prepares for upcoming tax hikes March 14, 2025 The UK economy underperformed expectations in January. According to the latest set of gross domestic product (GDP) figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the economy shrank by 0.1 per cent in January as output was dragged down by a sharp drop in output in the production sector. Over the three months to [...]
Labour’s growth agenda? Necessary but not sufficient. March 11, 2025 Ministers will be deeply frustrated at the lack of economic growth, though they ought not to be surprised. Their own missteps have been well covered in this newspaper, and week after week new survey data reveals the extent to which government policies have dampened spirits, reduced hiring and spooked confidence. However, while their opening salvo [...]
Reeves eyeing spending cuts as fiscal walls cave in March 10, 2025 Rachel Reeves is expected to take the chop to spending in her upcoming Spring Statement, as the government’s fiscal headroom disappears. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is set to show a depletion in the Chancellor’s headway, according to BNP Paribas economists. This leaves the government with little options beside further tax hikes or spending [...]