Labour’s welfare U-turn spikes fears of tax hikes June 27, 2025 The Labour government has confirmed its latest U-turn with a significant retreat on welfare reform dealing a crushing blow to Rachel Reeves’ waning fiscal headroom. The bill initially targeted restrictions on personal independence payments (PIP) and limited the sickness-related element of universal credit in a bid to shed £5bn from the welfare budget by 2030. Under [...]
Saving British Steel leaves taxpayers with £900m bill June 25, 2025 The government’s decision to take emergency control of British Steel is poised to cost the taxpayer just short of £1bn, according to initial government estimates, sparking warnings from opposition politicians that the Chancellor’s narrow fiscal headroom is in jeopardy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) expects the public finances to suffer a £900m hit from [...]
Will the Bank of England’s quantitative tightening torpedo Reeves’ fiscal rules? June 5, 2025 Rachel Reeves is in a pickle. At under £10bn, the Chancellor’s self-imposed fiscal headroom – the Treasury’s wiggle room within its fiscal rules – is already wafer-thin by historic standards. And it is under intense strain, given a recent slew of billion-pound government spending pledges such as reversing winter fuel payments cuts and scrapping the [...]
Reeves warned against bank tax raid May 21, 2025 Rachel Reeves has been warned of the growth consequences of upping tax on lenders after a leaked memo from Angela Rayner called for the Chancellor to launch a cash grab on banks. Reeves was sent a memo by the Deputy Prime Minister ahead of the spring Statement, which called for an annual £700m hike on [...]
Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ could wipe out Rachel Reeves’ fiscal headroom April 1, 2025 A mere week after Rachel Reeves told the Commons she had restored her fiscal headroom, Trump’s planned ‘Liberation Day’ tariff deluge could send a wrecking ball through the Chancellor’s buffer. Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs has downgraded Britain’s economic growth outlook ahead of the President launching a fresh set of tariffs that could smash Reeves’ [...]
Rachel Reeves has already lost half of her £9.9bn headroom March 28, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves has had £5bn wiped off her headroom less than 48 hours after she delivered her Spring Statement, a calculation by Bloomberg Economics has suggested. Chancellor Reeves has received several warnings from leading economists at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) that her headroom risks getting [...]
Pressure on Rachel Reeves grows as tax receipts disappoint February 21, 2025 Tax receipts rose at a slower pace than expected in January, new figures show, in a sign that the poor performance of the economy could have damaging fiscal consequences. According to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the government recorded a monthly surplus of £15.4bn, meaning it received more in taxes than it [...]
Government ‘would breach fiscal rules with minor rate rise’ November 5, 2024 The Chancellor would be in breach of her own fiscal rules if interest rates remain just 30 basis points higher than the fiscal watchdog forecasts, Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) economists have said. Giving evidence to the Treasury Committee, OBR member Tom Josephs told MPs that his colleagues conducted analysis that found “a change of [...]