Nato: Starmer’s defence spending pledge lagging behind
Sir Keir Starmer’s pledge to upgrade the armed forces is facing renewed scrutiny after official Nato figures suggested that spending in defence was lagging ahead of a crucial expenditure target in 2027.
Starmer said last year that the government would increase spending on defence to 2.6 per cent of GDP from 2027.
But Nato, the transatlantic military alliance of 32 countries including the US and France, said the UK military’s spending as a share of GDP in 2025 was just above 2.3 per cent.
The alliance had previously predicted the UK government to spend 2.4 per cent of GDP on defence in 2025.
The downgrade in Nato’s estimate is set to heap pressure on Downing Street to keep funding pledges intact as the government’s pledge faces having to keep up with swings in inflation and the changes in GDP over time.
The government has defined cash settlements for the Ministry of Defence until 2029.
Starmer hit by another defence warning
Starmer and Reeves have previously been warned about the slow pace of the government’s increase in defence spending.
Nato members have agreed to ramp up defence spending to at least 3.5 per cent of GDP by 2035.
But the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said earlier this month that there was a £6bn gap, equivalent to 0.2 per cent of GDP, in expenditure plans if the government hoped to get to Nato’s 2035 target on a linear path.
MPs and defence experts have also raised alarm at the delay of the highly-anticipated Defence Investment Plan (DIP), a key strategy paper on defence projects which was scheduled to be published last autumn, and questions over a shortfall in the MoD’s budget.
Reports have suggested that military chiefs have warned that the government faces a £28bn shortfall in plans over the next four years.
Starmer admitted on Monday that the DIP had been delayed as there remained problems over “where the money is coming from”.
“We have to make sure the investment we need is going in and it is sustained over a 10-year period in accordance with the strategic review,” he said.
In Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Spending Review last year, she said the government was committed to hitting next year’s target while there was an “ambition” to reach three per cent after 2029 “when economic and fiscal conditions allow”.
A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: “The UK is one of the top defence spenders of all NATO nations and, as these figures show, our spending has increased by almost £9bn since 2023 – a significant real terms increase. The UK has always met our Nato spending commitments.
“We are a leader in the Alliance, committing our nuclear deterrent in full to Nato and offering almost all our Armed Forces to Nato on land, in the air and at sea, contributing to nearly every NATO mission.
“We are delivering the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War and investing £270bn in defence across this Parliament alone.”