Man United have to be opposed at the Lane
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR vs. MANCHESTER UNITED
TOMORROW 5.30PM, ESPN
HARRY REDKNAPP will be delighted with his team’s start to the season and Spurs fans are already dreaming of a Champions League spot. They have been on fire at home recently, winning all of their last eight league matches – including games against Liverpool and Chelsea – whilst Redknapp’s record at home to the Big Four at Spurs is W3-D2-L0. Man United have looked a little shaky without Cristiano Ronaldo and were very fortunate to beat Arsenal at Old Trafford.
The problem we have in backing a home win is that Spurs have only beaten United once since the turn of the century – in May 2001 when United were already confirmed as champions.
That said, since 2003/04, Sir Alex Ferguson’s side have a disappointing record away at teams in the top-six in the first six games of the season (W1-D3-L2). This is also true when they travel to the capital, where in the last three seasons they have won just one of nine (W1-D3-L5) when their opposition has been in the top half at the time. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the draw at a best-priced 12/5 with Boylesports, but the safest option is to lay United on Betdaq at around 11/8, or sell their supremacy at 0.3 with Sporting Index.
Spurs have been involved in plenty of high scoring games this season, but there are strong trends here that point to a low scoring encounter – especially with the absences of Ronaldo and Luka Modric. The Croatian has missed nine games for Spurs since joining last season and his side’s goals-per-game average has dropped from 1.48 to 0.78 when he’s not played. Similarly, Ronaldo missed only 16 matches for United in the past two seasons and when he was unavailable, the team’s goal average fell by 24 per cent from 2.05 per game to 1.56. The last two games between these two here have seen a total of just two goals, while there have only been two goals in Spurs’ last four home games against top-six finishers from the previous season. Spread bettors should sell goals at 2.6 with Sporting Index.
Pointers…
Lay Man United on Betdaq / sell their supremacy with Sporting Index
Sell total match goals at 2.6 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER CITY vs. ARSENAL
TOMORROW 3PM
ARSENAL make their second trip to Manchester in the space of a fortnight and Arsene Wenger will be hoping his side have much more luck than they did at Old Trafford. They deserved at least a point, have looked very solid in the opening few weeks and will be looking to exact revenge on City following last season’s embarrassing 3-0 defeat at Eastlands. The fixture has added bite with Emmanuel Adebayor and Kolo Toure coming up against their ex-teammates, but although City have won all three games this season, they have been against poor sides and will more than likely have to rest Robinho and Tevez.
The Gunners are a big price at 6/4 with Boylesports and should be backed to pick up their third win of the season, although I don’t expect it to be a hammering. City are yet to concede in three games this campaign and since the January transfer window last season, 14 of their 19 matches have produced two or fewer goals. This is also true in all of their last five games against the Big Four, whilst the Gunners have seen no more than two goals in seven of their last 12 away games in the past two seasons against top-half, non-Big Four sides. The best spread betting call again is a sell of goals with Sporting Index, as the defences look to hold all the aces in this one.
Pointers…
Arsenal to win at 6/4 with Boylesports
Sell total match goals at 2.5 with Sporting Index
FULHAM vs. EVERTON
SUNDAY 4.15PM SKY SPORTS 1
DAVID Moyes is worshipped at Goodison Park, but an opening day 6-1 thrashing by Arsenal, followed by a 1-0 defeat at Burnley and the Joleon Lescott transfer saga must have tested his patience.
However, his side picked up a vital first win of the season at home against Wigan thanks to a last minute Leighton Baines penalty and he will be hoping that leads to a change of fortune. They travel to Craven Cottage on Sunday and he will be pleased to learn that the Cottagers have lost eight of their 12 games without the currently injured Andy Johnson since Everton sold him to them last season. Roy Hodgson’s side have also lost five of their last eight home games, whilst the Toffees have won 11 and lost just three times in 16 away games against middle-third finishers in the past two seasons. Louis Saha has scored four goals in four games this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him open the scoring against his former club, so back him at 13/2 with Hills.
Pointers…
Everton to win at 19/10 on Betdaq
Louis Saha to score first at 13/2 with Hills