Independent Scotland could be running short of oil and gas in 15 years, says Sir Ian Wood
An independent Scotland could start to feel the impact of depleting oil and gas reserves in just 15 years, according to a leading figure in the oil industry.
Former chief executive of Wood Group, Sir Ian Wood, has warned that Alex Salmond has massively overestimated the amount of recoverable oil and gas left in the North Sea.
The SNP have quoted predictions that Scotland has 24bn barrels of oil left. Wood believes this number could be off by between 45 and 65 per cent.
However, the much more important consideration for Wood is how long these energy supplies will last.
"We now have a mature offshore oil and gas basin with depleting reserves, and even with everything possible being done to maximise recovery, we will be down to very low levels of production by 2050," Wood told EnergyVoice.com.
If correct, Wood's analysis would be a serious blow to the argument that an independent Scotland could raise enough tax revenue to fund its high levels of public spending.
Careful not to make a partisan point, Wood said: “I believe the debate should not be about nationalism, but growth and economic success, and the quality of life for citizens and all that goes with that. Against these measures, it’s very hard not to conclude the case is heavily weighted towards Scotland remaining in the UK and getting the best of both worlds – I want the best for future generations of Scots.”
The Aberdeen-born businessman said tax revenue from oil and gas over the next five years will be less than 40 per cent of the Scottish government's current prediction – equivalent to £370 for every person in Scotland.
If Scotland ditches the rest of the UK Wood said it could lead to the ironic situation where Scotland might have to import energy from south of the border, hitting its balance of payments.