Greece may have edged closer to a deal with its creditors for debt relief, but the troubled Eurozone nation is not out of the woods yet, as bookies say there is a decent chance it could be kicked out of the single currency bloc.
In response, Germany appeared to indicate it would be willing to discuss easing the terms and conditions on the €86bn Greece owes the troika of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Eurozone and the European Central Bank (ECB). This could involve repayment holidays, debt rollovers and longer repayment terms.
Stock markets are reacting handsomely – Greece's was up by more than two per cent on Tuesday morning and bond yields had dipped. They were still, crucially, above the seven per cent mark that investors believe separates good from bad debt.
Bookmakers, too, do not believe Athens should not celebrate just yet.
Both Ladbrokes and William Hill are offering odds of 5/1 – an implied probability of 17 per cent – that Greece leaves the Eurozone.
Ladbrokes has 5/1 that the country "uses the Drachma before 2020". That is longer than the 4/6 reached during last summer's bailout saga and Greek referendum on a new bailout deal, but "the shortest price this year."
Ladbrokes: 5/1 Greece to use the Drachma by 2020
William Hill: 5/1 Greece to confirm/announce it will leave the European Union by the end of 2016
William Hill reckons there could be even more trouble on the horizon. Their 5/1 is on offer for Greece to either announce or confirm that it will leave the EU – not just the single currency – by the end of this year. "One would follow the other," a spokesman said, adding: "Of course, that includes them being slung out."
By contrast, Britain to leave the European Union is currently trading around 12/5, around a 29 per cent chance, meaning that even with the UK's referendum, bookies believe we are still only twice as likely to leave the EU this year as Greece.