Friday 5 April 2019 10:29 am

Goldman Sachs cuts the probability of a no-deal Brexit

Goldman Sachs said today that the UK is less likely to leave the EU without a deal as cross-party talks continue.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have said that they think the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU without a deal has fallen.

Goldman Sachs’ number crunchers upped the chances of a modified version of the current Brexit deal passing to 50 per cent from 45 per cent.


Read more: May asks EU for longer Brexit delay

They still think the most likely scenario is for the UK to leave the EU in an “orderly fashion” before the European parliamentary elections in May.

“Outside our central scenario, we think the risks are skewed decisively in the direction of a longer Article 50 extension and a softer Brexit end-state than originally envisaged by Prime Minister May,” they wrote.

Predictions of the probability of Brexit being overturned were unchanged at 40 per cent.

“Wrapping any negotiated exit deal in a confirmatory second referendum may well be seen by a majority of MPs as an appealing ameliorative to the stark divisions running through the House of Commons,” they said.

Read more: Brexit: EU may offer 12-month 'flexible' Article 50 extension

May has written to President of the European Council Donald Tusk to ask for an extension to the Brexit deadline.


May has asked the European Council for the current deadline to be extended to 30 June, with an option to withdraw earlier if a deal is agreed.

The deadline is currently set for 12 April, after which the UK would leave the EU without a deal if no agreement has been made.

The request comes amid reports Tusk is preparing to offer the UK a 12-month “flexible” extension to the deadline.

The plan, which will be put to EU leaders at a meeting next week, would allow the UK to withdraw earlier if a deal has been secured, the BBC reported, citing a senior EU source.

May will today resume talks with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in a bid to break the Brexit deadlock.

 

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