Football is probably coming home — at least according to Wall Street titan Goldman Sachs.
Analysts at the US bank have predicted that England will end their 55-year run without a major football title by defeating Spain in the Euro 2020 final.
“It’s (probably) coming home,” they wrote in a note dated 4 July. “With Belgium out of the competition now, our model sees England as the favourite to win the Euros after their 4-0 win against Ukraine.”
Goldman had originally forecast a Belgium victory, predicting that the country would defeat England in the final to take the crown.
But the analysts have updated their model after Belgium were knocked out by Italy in a 2-1 defeat on Friday.
Spain now face Italy in the first semi-final tomorrow, while England are up against Denmark the following day.
Goldman’s probability model analyses data going back to 1980 to make predictions about the outcome, taking into account a number of factors including current team strength and how well a side performs during a tournament.
But the analysts have admitted that the sheer unpredictability of football means their forecasts may not come to pass.
“The forecasts are highly uncertain, even with sophisticated statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game,” they said in a note earlier this year.
“This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch.”