ECONOMIST VIEWS: WILL THE BANK REVISE ITS FORECASTS THIS WEEK?
JONATHAN LOYNES | CAPITAL ECONOMICS
“I expect the growth forecast to be similar since the second quarter was strong, and it may even rise in the near term. The inflation forecast will have to rise, partly as a result of the VAT increase. Yet the Bank may see inflation at or below the target rate in the longer term.”
SIMON HAYES | BARCLAYS CAPITAL
“If you incorporate the VAT hike, then we may see an inflation forecast rise of up to one percentage point. We should however see it go below the target by 2012. Growth is a little less clear. The second half may be weaker than expected, but the second quarter was good. The medium forecast may fall.”
GEORGE BUCKLEY | DEUTSCHE BANK
“Both inflation and growth will be revised up in the near term. Inflation will go up because of the VAT increase, but should remain flat in the longer term. We should see an increase in growth in the short term because of the strong second quarter. But this will fall in the longer term through 2011 and 2012.”