ECONOMIST VIEWS: WAS SECOND QUARTER GDP AS GOOD AS IT WILL GET?
HETAL MEHTA | E&Y ITEM CLUB
“The second quarter is likely to represent the high point as fiscal tightening and a renewed slowdown in global activity constrains a more robust recovery. This preliminary estimate does not radically change the basic picture of a patchy recovery that will only pick up speed gradually.”
SIMON HAYES | BARCLAYS CAPITAL
“There are reasons to be cautious in concluding that a vigorous recovery is in train. Sentiment has softened recently, reflecting concerns about the effects of government cuts, and demand might well slow in the second half of the year. The second quarter could prove to be the local peak in growth.”
BENJAMIN WILLIAMSON | CEBR
“The national statisticians seem to have caught up with what the surveys have been saying all along. It is plausible that official measures have underestimated the level of output since the third quarter of 2009. The official measure is now about where it should be and in a much better state.”