Cup kings Chelsea set for another win at Wembley
CHELSEA vs LIVERPOOL
Saturday – 5.15pm, ITV 1
TRADITION might have gone out the window when it comes to the scheduling of the FA Cup final, but there is still no other game quite like it.
Playing the final a week early affected both Chelsea’s and Liverpool’s midweek Premier League fixtures, although at least it showed where the clubs’ priorities lie. They will be desperate to lift the trophy tomorrow evening.
Chelsea kick-off as favourites, at 7/5 with Coral, and had looked in great shape until Wednesday’s defeat at home to Newcastle. The Blues’ demanding schedule forced Roberto Di Matteo to shuffle the pack at Stamford Bridge, but his team still put in a lacklustre performance. They will be back to full strength at Wembley and should have the edge.
Liverpool are in danger of suffering the dual disappointment of recording their worst-ever Premier League finish and ending the campaign below Everton. The Reds haven’t managed to find any sort of consistency this term, and at no point have they managed a winning run of more than two league games. They have only done that on three occasions and not once in 2012.
During this calendar year Liverpool have lost 10 of 17 top flight games and have won just four times. Clearly their twin cup runs have been a distraction, yet the truth is that, despite massive investment, the Carling Cup holders are lacking in quality. And they came very close to blowing that opportunity, needing penalties to overcome Cardiff. Liverpool have to be opposed at 2/1 with Coral.
Chelsea are 7/10 to lift the trophy and if they manage that then it will be the fourth time they have won the competition in six years. The fact that the ‘Chelsea Four’ of John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Raul Meireles and Ramires will all miss the Champions League final is going to make the team even more determined. Both managers can call on plenty of players with big game experience, but Di Matteo’s men also have the edge in this department.
Because of the nature of the occasion I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tight game. The last five finals have seen an aggregate of just six goals scored in normal time so the spread betting advice is to sell goals at 2.35 with Sporting Index.
The focus in the build-up will understandably be on Fernando Torres, but I expect to see him on the bench with Didier Drogba restored to the starting XI. Drogba loves playing at Wembley and he’s worth a punt at 6/1 with Coral to score first, especially as the firm is refunding losing bets on first/last goalscorer, correct scores and scorecasts on the match if Torres gets the last goal of the game.
● Pointers…
Chelsea at 7/5 with Coral
Didier Drogba to score first at 6/1 with Coral
Sell total goals at 2.35 with Sporting Index
NEWCASTLE vs MANCHESTER CITY
Sunday – 1.30pm, Sky Sports
THIS has been one of the most dramatic title races I can remember and I’d be surprised if there aren’t some more twists and turns over the final two weekends. Manchester City got the result they desperately needed on Monday night and Roberto Mancini knows that a win against Newcastle on Sunday will virtually guarantee the league.
It isn’t going to be easy for the Citizens, though, as Newcastle’s victory at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night was a massive boost to their chances of finishing fourth. The Magpies have won seven of their last eight games and their in-form strikers, Papiss Cisse and Demba Ba, have been wreaking havoc.
However, City have the title within touching distance and it just looks as though now is their time. Coral have them as 8/13 favourites and although that is fairly short, I still think they’ll win. They perhaps should have beaten Manchester United more comfortably on Monday, but their defence was rock solid, led by the outstanding Vincent Kompany.
The shape of the match will depend on the opening exchanges. If City take an early lead, Mancini may try to shut up shop and hit Newcastle on the break, but that is a dangerous policy against Alan Pardew’s side, who have attacking flair in abundance and whose front line is so confident.
The Magpies also need to go for a win and it would be no surprise if they got on the scoresheet. Both teams have scored in their last five meetings and City have won four of those contests, with the other a 2-2 draw. An opening goal for Newcastle would really light the touch paper and we may end up with a high-scoring contest.
My gut feeling is that City will have enough to win and with both sides going for three points, I can certainly see both goalkeepers having a busy afternoon. If I was to have a spread bet, I’d buy goals at 3.1 with Sporting Index.
● Pointers…
Manchester City at 8/13 with Coral
MANCHESTER UNITED vs SWANSEA
Sunday – 4.00pm, Sky Sports
HAD things worked out differently at the Etihad on Monday then Manchester United would have approached this game expecting it to mark another championship coronation. They could still win a 13th Premier League title, but if Manchester City aren’t going to drop points then the only way they can do it is with a major goal swing.
Swansea at home looks a better chance of swelling the ‘for’ column than Sunderland away on the final day so all out attack could be the order of the day.
The Swans have won the hearts of neutrals this season thanks to Brendan Rodgers’s stubborn application of an easy-on-the-eye passing game, no matter who they are playing. Even at Old Trafford Rodgers is unlikely to waver and it might be his side’s undoing.
They shared eight goals evenly with Wolves last time out and we could be in for another high-scoring encounter here.
No ground has witnessed more goals this season than the Theatre of Dreams, with an average of 3.83 to date, so even Sporting Index’s hefty quote of 3.7 goals can be bought.
It certainly looks a better choice than a bet on the outright market – United are no bigger than 1/5 for victory. Even if the hosts don’t hammer Swansea, it will probably be because they’ve let in one or two going for them at the other end.
● Pointers…
Buy total goals at 3.7 with Sporting Index