Monday 12 July 2021 2:33 pm

Covid-19 update: How large could UK's third wave of cases be?

Ahead of the Prime Ministers easing of restrictions announcement later today, the latest data shows the number of people around England testing positive for the virus is increasing.

According to Public Health England, a total of 178,534 new confirmed cases were recorded in England in the seven days to 7 July. This is the equivalent of 317.2 cases per 100,000 people – this is up from 224.2 per 100,000 the week prior, and is the highest rate of new cases since January 25.

It is still some way below the second-wave peak of 680.6 per 100,000, however.

North-East England is currently recording the highest rate of infection, with 750.3 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to 7 July.

Cases for all groups are rising however they are more prevalent in younger generations, with 20-24-year-olds recording their highest rates since figures began, currently at 614.3 cases per 100,000 people.

Both five to nine-year-olds and 10 to 19-year-olds are also recording their highest figures.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that oneĀ in 45 people from school year 12 to age 24 are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week to 3 July.

And one in 60 people in private households were infected with the virus in the week to 3 July.


The average coronavirus related deaths rising slightly with the number currently at 24 as of July 11, up from 15 people the week before.

The number of Covid-19 patients in hospital in England stood at 2,352 as of 9 July, according to the latest figures from NHS England.

This is up 46 per cent from a week earlier and is the highest since 8 April.

Patient numbers are not rising as sharply as cases or infections, however.

They are also a long way below the record 34,336 Covid-19 hospital patients at the peak of the second wave on 18 January.

Vaccine Rollout

The Government has said it will have offered all adults in England a first dose of one of the coronavirus vaccines by 19 July.

Public Health England suggest the vaccines have directly prevented over 46,300 hospital admissions in England. They also estimate that vaccines have prevented between 29,000 and 31,800 deaths.

Around 87 per cent of adults in England are estimated to have received their first dose, with nearly 66 per cent with two doses.