We’ve spent months on Zoom, but we mustn’t forget to “zoom out” September 7, 2020 When threatened, human beings automatically focus intently on the danger. This amazing ability to “zoom in” is why you’re here. It kept your ancestors alive while others weren’t so lucky. In hunter-gatherer tribes, threats were short-lived but lethal. When a rival clan runs out from the trees, being focused pays off. However, what kept our [...]
Public Health England dropped the ball on the pandemic — but the new restructuring offers hope September 7, 2020 Mike Tyson’s infamous line about everyone having a plan until they get punched in the mouth could be the epitaph for Public Health England. The quango made many mistakes in its response to Covid-19, but planning for an influenza epidemic was perhaps the most fatal. PHE had swine flu, rather than the SARS coronavirus, in [...]
Putin holds all the cards in Belarus September 7, 2020 One of the greatest problems in political risk analysis is that the heart so often gets the better of the head. Because we want a political outcome to happen, we think that it will. Karmic justice must apply to all situations in history, with the good rewarded and the bad punished. But this is to [...]
The Square Mile is welcoming Londoners back to the City September 7, 2020 Every week, we are seeing more people trickling back to the City of London for work, school, or simply to visit this world-class destination. Despite the sights across the Square Mile remaining strikingly familiar, those who have already returned will have noticed a number of changes. A new dawn has begun in the City. A [...]
Rishi Sunak must walk a tightrope on his pitch of Tory economic competence September 4, 2020 Yesterday Rishi Sunak was photographed carrying a note with the text of his address to the 1922 Committee. This was something we lived in constant fear of when I worked in No.11. One day I forgot to put a folder round a note I was carrying on our 2018 Budget ‘rabbit’ and subsequently spent the next six [...]
Navigating the UK’s economic recovery – a sector analysis September 4, 2020 We are living through extraordinary economic times. There is no hiding from the fact that this is a deep recession, and one that provides ample risk for investors. Recent GDP figures paint a gloomy picture and suggest that it will take some time for the economy to fully heal from Covid-19. The good news is [...]
Covid-19 does not prove the case for Scottish independence — if anything it does the opposite September 4, 2020 Scotland has had a “good” pandemic. Nicola Sturgeon has excelled. The incompetence of the government south of the border proves once and for all that an independent Scotland would flourish. Or so the Scottish Nationalists will tell you. And it seems to be working. While Boris Johnson was hospitalised and convalescing after his own brush [...]
HSBC’s looming pensions crisis: will the bank win the battle but lose the war? September 4, 2020 A business of any reasonable size should have members of its team scanning the horizon for potential problems, like Frederick Fleet in the crow’s nest of RMS Titanic. The most dangerous crises, though, are those which fall on a company from an apparently cloudless sky: those which hit unprepared, and leave a business scrabbling for [...]
A three-step recovery plan for London’s West End September 4, 2020 Six months since the government first urged employees to work from home, they are now being asked to return. Given their track record of obedience, the government expected workers to be returning to the office in high numbers, but that is not what we have seen this week, with potentially disastrous and well-publicised consequences for [...]
The future of the construction industry is digital September 4, 2020 The double-whammy of a pandemic and a recession has made 2020 one of the most challenging and disrupted years in living memory. But the bright spot, in an otherwise battered economy, is construction, which forms a major part of Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s ”Build Back Better” campaign. Britain’s construction industry grew at the fastest rate in almost [...]