Money supply growth suggests we’re still too pessimistic about the British economy November 2, 2016 The latest broad money supply M4x figures from the Bank of England (up to the end of September this year) paint a picture of an economy getting stronger, not weaker. To understand why, we need a short digression into economic theory. Broad money supply growth provides an insight into the outlook for nominal GDP growth [...]
The age of deglobalisation is here: Now we must face up to its implications November 2, 2016 Politics is never certain. Yet from Brexit and wider Eurozone disquiet, to the isolationist rhetoric permeating the US elections, one thing is clear: the former mantras of globalisation and deregulation are facing increasing opposition. Voters across the developed world are expressing the view that the benefits of operating at an international scale have been offset by [...]
As the typical UK house price rises to six times annual earnings, should young people forget about ever buying? November 2, 2016 Ben Southwood, head of research at the Adam Smith Institute, says Yes. Unless something changes, few of today’s youth will ever own their own homes – there is simply not enough housing to go round. Home ownership has been falling, generation by generation. When they were 45, around 80 per cent of the cohort born in [...]
Making millennials happy is good for business November 2, 2016 I know what you’re thinking: another column about millennials. This one, I hope, strikes more of a chord because it’s about their impact on your business and how to respond. This generation is shaking up the workforce in a way not seen for decades. Our research suggests that three quarters of managers see the challenge [...]
TUI must not get clouded by Brexit drama if it wants to woo more holidaymakers November 2, 2016 As the TUI Group embarks on a Europe-wide advertising campaign aimed at unifying the travel brand, it’s a good time to examine how the company has been faring. Recently, the group saw its share price rise following a better-than-expected outlook for its full-year earnings. YouGov tracking data suggests TUI’s brand Thomson has performed admirably in the midst [...]
Autumn Statement 2016: Should Hammond try his luck at some radical tax simplification? November 2, 2016 Scrap corporation tax. Scrap council tax. Scrap capital gains tax. And inheritance tax too. And business rates, the TV licence fee, the apprenticeship levy, all stamp duties, alcohol duties, tobacco duties – get rid of them all! These are the somewhat provocative proposals from a new report covered on today’s front page of City A.M. [...]
Shrink the government to grow the British economy November 2, 2016 November is the month when many Christians remember the dead. This year, in the same month, the Institute of Economic Affairs is focusing on that other constant of life – taxes. Sadly in the UK, taxes seem not just inevitable, but ever-growing. In 2015, the government spent 46 per cent of national income. Government estimates [...]
Should investors brace themselves for a big stock market fall if Donald Trump wins the US election? November 1, 2016 Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, says Yes. If a friend is now waking up after missing 2016 in a coma, bring them up to speed gently: start with Leicester winning the Premier League at 5000-to-one. The UK’s vote to leave the EU was discounted even by its leading proponents right until the morning of [...]
The people of Burnley and Bradford have a point about the impact of immigration November 1, 2016 The scenes as the migrant camp was cleared in Calais once again provoked bitter divisions in British society. Metropolitan luvvies and liberals tweeted their virtue and called for no restrictions on immigration. In more traditional areas, there is active resentment at the possibility of even further inflows of foreigners. When New Labour decided in the [...]
Theresa May’s industrial strategy isn’t about picking winners – but taking control of Britain’s economic destiny post-Brexit November 1, 2016 Purists likely shuddered at Theresa May’s commitment to a “proper, modern industrial strategy” as she reshaped the Business Department in July. Three decades of free market orthodoxy have convinced many business folk that a fully-fledged plan for industry represents a throwback to the 1970s, a decade when sickly British Leyland came to symbolise all that [...]