Keep an eye on geopolitics: it matters to the forex markets May 26, 2009 OPPORTUNISTIC currency traders have always been quick to price in oil price spikes, non-standard monetary policies and signs of green shoots, sending currencies up and down depending on the level of risk aversion in the markets. Risk appetite, or the lack of it, has been a major driver of currency movements since the start of [...]
POLITICS CAN RARELY MOVE THE MARKETS May 25, 2009 When Richard Nixon was asked what he would be doing if he wasn’t President, he said: “Buying stocks on Wall Street”. One can only imagine the headlines. But it does raise the question, do politics and the markets ever mix? With our political system being dragged through the gutter will there be an effect on [...]
Uncertainty over dividend payments could see defensive shares back on top May 25, 2009 MARKS & Spencer was hit by shareholder anger last week after it confirmed a widely flagged decision to slash its dividend payout to shareholders by one third. It saw its shares dive to the bottom of the FTSE 100, wiping 8 per cent off the share price in just one day. The price has continued [...]
THE GLOOMY NEWS ISN’T ALL OVER YET May 25, 2009 THERE was a little corrective activity in the middle of last week, but the story this quarter for the S&P 500 has been positive: the index has notched up gains of over 11 per cent. But we shouldn’t start getting too excited just yet. The S&P’s gains sit uncomfortably with the gloomy rhetoric that is [...]
Nikkei to be dragged down by demand slump May 25, 2009 THINGS can’t get any worse for Japan, it seems. That at least is the view held by the Bank of Japan, which upgraded its assessment of the economy for the first time in three years, despite a record economic contraction in the first quarter of 2009. GDP data released last Thursday showed that the Japanese [...]
THE TIPSTER May 25, 2009 RETAIL sales might have been under pressure during the downturn but last week’s bigger-than-expected rise and a flurry of good corporate results have boosted the outlook. Picks of the sector are Mothercare, Britvic and online retailer ASOS. Mothercare came out with some great results on Wednesday and although the shares look relatively expensive at a [...]
Gilt prices on course to fall as UK public debt threatens credit rating May 25, 2009 MARKETS were rattled last Thursday when ratings agency Standard & Poor’s announced that it had downgraded its outlook on Britain’s AAA credit rating to “negative” from “stable” for the first time since October 1993. Lower credit ratings result in higher borrowing costs because the borrower is considered more likely to default on its debt. If [...]
Traders should look to Asia for volatility and long-term bets May 25, 2009 WHATEVER Alistair Darling might be saying about V-shaped recoveries, in Europe and the US most of the talk is about a slow and protracted upturn. It’s otherwise in Asia, where economies are widely tipped to be the first to pull out of the global recession. There are three reasons for this: firstly, lower commodity prices [...]
EUROPEAN REPORT May 25, 2009 EUROPEAN shares closed higher yesterday with Sanofi Aventis leading pharmaceuticals higher after winning a US contract, and some analysts choosing to interpret a leading German economic survey positively. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares rose 0.3 per cent to a provisional close of 858.57 points, after two sessions of losses. But trade was [...]
MARTIN ON THE MARKETS May 25, 2009 THE FTSE 100 managed to finish positive last week, even after the threat that the UK’s S&P AAA credit rating may be removed. Nevertheless we can expect some mediocre profit-taking this morning. Later in the week we have a host of key US economic indicators such as durable goods and new home sales on Thursday [...]