President Xi’s economic aim and the China Dream October 27, 2017 | City Talk Following the opening of the 19th National People's Congress in Beijing, our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons gave his personal view on President Xi's main speech. Our investment committee keeps fully abreast of global affairs, both in terms of the opportunities they offer and the wider implications. The Chinese NPC is a political gathering and [...]
Low rates, record high stocks: is the bubble about to burst? October 26, 2017 | City Talk The world is, seemingly, in a bull market in everything. Just take a few headlines from this month alone: US stocks, already at all-time highs, hit a sixth consecutive closing high, which is the first time that has happened for 20 years. In debt markets, Ireland issued a bond with a negative yield, which means [...]
The $64 trillion question October 25, 2017 | City Talk How much longer the stock market rally can continue has become the $64 trillion question. For a growing number of market observers, there’s a simple answer: not much longer at all. Markets, they argue, have becoming increasingly detached from economic fundamentals, particularly in Britain. It’s thirty years since Black Monday and while few would suggest [...]
Short of civil war markets have the measure of the Catalonian crisis October 25, 2017 | City Talk Spain’s political crisis could have sent European markets into freefall last week. Instead they brushed it off with a continental shrug of the shoulder. While most European markets trended lower when Madrid said it planned to reassert its authority over Catalonia and impose direct rule over the autonomous region on Thursday, the falls were by [...]
Trading Trump October 25, 2017 | City Talk In recent months President Trump has reportedly been “hell bent” on imposing huge tariffs on steel imports to bolster domestic industries, despite warnings that doing so may spark a global trade war. Treading delicately as is his custom, ‘the Donald’ has also threatened to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). Nafta does [...]
GDP, rate rises and Carney crying wolf October 25, 2017 | City Talk The ‘will they, won’t they’ speculation over whether the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will hike interest rates for the first time in a decade will hit fever pitch today if economic growth figures point to a strong summer of growth. For the best part of a month, the City has been trying to work out [...]
How do interest rates affect stockmarkets? October 25, 2017 The UK economy grew 0.4% in the third quarter of 2017, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate rise in November – the first in a decade. With stocks near record highs we look how interest rates affect the stock market. Ask yourself this – how much would someone have to give you in a [...]
If bitcoin isn’t a bubble, it’s a spookily good impression October 24, 2017 | City Talk “Proper excited about Mobile Cryptocurrency! I’m in, get involved!” So tweeted Harry Redknapp last week about a ‘mobile cryptocurrency’ called electroneum. On reading it, we could not help but think of the song famously associated with one of the serial football manager’s former clubs, West Ham United. All together now: “I’m forever blowing bubbles …” [...]
There is no perfect time to invest, so seize the day October 20, 2017 | City Talk For those who have a mind to find one, there is always a reason not to invest in the equity markets and yet, remain forever in cash and over the longer term you are likely to be materially worse off. Everything in life, as Albert Einstein knew, is relative – even the threat of nuclear [...]
UK inflation rises, adding to pressure on rates October 20, 2017 | City Talk There are two key domestic issues this week for UK financial markets. One is the latest inflation news and the implications for interest rates. The second is the ongoing Brexit discussions and what might the latest phase imply for settling. Let's focus here on the inflation news. This week's data release showed that inflation rose [...]