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      The devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances

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Economics

  • Immigration should be part of Brexit debate

    May 27, 2016

    Back in the early days of the referendum, when (on the pro-Brexit side, at least) different factions were vying for the official designation, we heard a lot about the different tone of the contenders. One group, Leave.EU, was said to be associated more with UKIP and, therefore, would represent a campaign based more on the [...]

  • Forward misguidance: Unreliable central banks are fuelling market volatility

    May 27, 2016

    At the bottom of every financial prediction or statement, often buried under mountains of small print, is a warning that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This is true whether we look at stock markets, investment funds or central banks. Since 2013, however, some of the world’s largest financial institutions have been [...]

  • Pensioners could lose £32,000 if Britain leaves the EU, says Osborne

    May 26, 2016

    Pensioners could lose £32,000 if Britain leaving the EU shocks markets, a Treasury analysis has found. The Treasury suggests that Brexit will lead to an increase in inflation and financial market turmoil which will, in turn, lead to millions of current and future pensioners being worse off.  The study, which is the latest in the string of Treasury [...]

  • China raises £300m in London as part of first ever overseas RMB bond

    May 26, 2016

    China's finance ministry today issued a three billion yuan (£312m) international bond, its first ever outside China or Hong Kong. The bond, set to be listed on the London Stock Exchange, was managed by HSBC and China's finance ministry. In October last year, China's central bank debuted on London markets with the sale of its first [...]

  • Business investment dropped in the first quarter of the year due to Brexit and bear markets

    May 26, 2016

    Business investment slipped in the first three months of the year, as market volatility, shattered confidence and the EU referendum were all blamed for firms failing to dip their hands into their pockets. Investment by corporates fell by 0.5 per cent between January and March, following a two per cent contraction at the end of [...]

  • The cost of hedging against a swing in the value of the pound just hit a seven-year high

    May 26, 2016

    The price of hedging against volatility on the currency markets spiked today, as traders become increasing nervous with just four weeks to go until the EU referendum. The cost of insuring against swings on the value of the pound, as measured by one-month options for swapping sterling into US dollars hit a seven-year high today. [...]

  • IMF will not join Greek bailout until clear steps on debt relief have been agreed

    May 26, 2016

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that it "hopes" to officially join the Greek bailout programme by the end of the year, but insisted it could not make any guarantees. Earlier this week Greece agreed a €10.3bn (£7.8bn) deal to unlock funds from Eurozone to help it cover debt repayments due this summer. The programme [...]

  • G7 leaders must recognise that monetary policy alone won’t solve the world’s ills

    May 26, 2016

    Hosting a successful family get-together is a stressful business. Just ask Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. With the leaders of the world’s major economies arriving in Ise-Shima for a G7 summit, Abe has promised “candid” and “fruitful” discussions to tackle the challenges to global growth. But against the backdrop of sluggish activity, doubts about the [...]

  • More than eight-in-ten local authorities will be in serious financial difficulty in the next three years, chief execs warn

    May 26, 2016

    Local authorities are at risk of failing to deliver essential services in coming years, the government is being warned.  PwC’s annual survey of local government leadership has shown that 81 per cent of local authority bosses believe that some will not deliver essential services within the next three years.  Almost nine-in-ten – 86 per cent – of council [...]

  • Greek bailout deal: Details, reaction and next steps

    May 25, 2016

    At 2am this morning, the final 'i's were being dotted and 't's being crossed on the latest stage of the multi-billion euro bailout of Greece. It may have felt like a slog for the finance ministers gathered in Brussels, but they have long memories, and the events of last summer – endless nights, referendums, broken promises [...]

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