Should we rule out a trade war between China and the US? January 10, 2017 Andy Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, says Yes. Donald Trump is very unlikely to implement the 45 per cent across-the-board tariff on imports from China that he proposed in an interview last year. US law permits the President to make only an emergency declaration of 15 per cent tariffs for up to five months, and [...]
Theresa May’s “shared society” slogan: Another excuse for more state, less Brexit January 10, 2017 I read Theresa May’s article about the “shared society” – assuming it was she who wrote it, and not her shadowy acolytes – with interest. It is always good to know what underlies our politicians’ thinking. But it is a disappointing read, a virtue-signalling undergraduate essay. It begins with the assertion, shared with most commentators, [...]
London job placements reach 10-month high as concerns grow over immigration skills shortages after Brexit January 10, 2017 Demand for workers in London has reached a 10-month high as vacancies in the capital increase at the quickest pace since February – but concern about Brexit controls on freedom of movement has led to calls for a more open policy on immigration. Recruiters found that permanent placements of workers with companies grew for the second month [...]
Single Market blues: The pound’s fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since October January 9, 2017 The pound today fell to its lowest level against the dollar since October last year, after comments by Theresa May caused investors to shy away from the currency. The pound plunged one per cent to $1.2122 in afternoon trading. It also fell more than one per cent against the euro, to a day-low of €1.1491, [...]
Experts say experts under threat: A third of economists think central bank independence is under threat January 9, 2017 Almost a third of European economists believe that central bank independence will come under increased pressure over the next four years, according to a new survey. 32 per cent of economists polled in a survey by the Centre for Macroeconomics and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) think politicians will try to gain more [...]
Eurozone youth unemployment rises sharply despite wider EU falls January 9, 2017 Unemployment in the European Union fell to its lowest point since February 2009 but youth unemployment rose sharply, adding further weight to concerns about the uneven nature of Europe's recovery. The unemployment rate in the EU fell to 8.3 per cent in November, down 0.1 percentage points from the month before, according to the European [...]
Christmas celebrations boost overall consumer spending for December January 9, 2017 Visa cardholders spent more in the final quarter of 2016 than they had for two years, according to Visa’s UK Consumer Spending Index, pointing toward a solid increase in household spending. The monthly report showed that consumer spending in December was up 2.6 per cent on the year in December with online purchases leading the [...]
Economists need to start playing catch-up – here’s why January 9, 2017 Last week was something of a cathartic one for the economics profession, as the Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane, conceded that those who engage in forecasting need to adapt to regain the trust of politicians and the public. Since last summer’s referendum, experts from the OECD, IMF, Bank of England and the Treasury [...]
We should all be concerned by Britain’s anxious, insecure young people January 9, 2017 "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” is the opening line of Charles Dickens’s novel A Tale of Two Cities, published in 1859. While the words were written over 150 years ago, I cannot think of a better phrase to encapsulate the situation facing young people in London and the rest [...]
This trade expert has warned of a “catastrophic” Brexit January 8, 2017 In the week that one of the UK's most "seasoned and tough" negotiators spectacularly resigned with a dig at the government's "muddled thinking", another negotiation expert has warned of the potentially "catastrophic" decision to leave the EU. Jason Langrish, a Canadian trade expert who worked on the country's deal with the EU, has said a deal between [...]