Why the UK’s record current account raises Brexit tail risk April 8, 2016 The UK is a serial debtor. In every quarter since 1998, its current account balance has been negative. In the last few years this deficit has grown rapidly. Currently, it is the largest in the G7. While modest deficits can be sustained even in the long-run providing gross domestic product growth is strong and stable, very [...]
Oil price sinks as Keystone shutdown fails to prevent US stockpile build at key Cushing hub April 7, 2016 The price of a barrel of oil has slid by around two per cent today after the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline last week failed to hold back the rising tide of oil. Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub added 255,804 barrels according to market intelligence firm Genscape. Brent crude was trading at $38.81 at the [...]
Why is Britain becoming less productive? Economists blame everyone from government to investors to statisticians April 7, 2016 The UK’s productivity has been trundling along at a less than spectacular pace for a number of years. This morning, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed it actually fell 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2015, raising concerns about the general state of the UK economy. But what is productivity, why [...]
US economy is about to be “swept away by a tidal wave of corporate default”, roars Societe Generale uber bear April 7, 2016 A Societe Generale analyst has predicted the US economy is about to be “swept away by a tidal wave of corporate default”. Albert Edwards has not shied away from bearish comments in the past and has been dubbed an "uber bear". In February 2014, amid turmoil in emerging markets, he described the unravelling as "the final tweet of [...]
Interest rates could be going even lower in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank has said April 7, 2016 Interest rates in Europe could sink even further into negative territory over the next few months, the European Central Bank (ECB) confirmed yesterday, as it said that it would keep all options on the table in its fight to stave off deflation in the Eurozone. Minutes from last month’s monetary policy meeting, where ECB president [...]
China’s foreign currency reserves have just grown for the first time in six months April 7, 2016 China has recorded a surprise jump in its foreign currency reserves in March, potentially ending a slide which has seen its stash of overseas cash fall by 20 per cent since 2014. Official data – out today – confirmed that China amassed an extra $100bn last month, taking its total reserves to $3.21 trillion (£2.28bn), in [...]
Productivity even more puzzling: UK productivity disappoints – workers are doing less with more April 7, 2016 Britain’s productivity plunged 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2015, according to fresh data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) this morning, adding to concerns about the UK’s so-called “productivity puzzle”. Productivity is a measure of how much economic output is generated for each hour of work and is believed to [...]
US Federal Reserve looks abroad as it finds reasons to hold back on interest rate rises April 6, 2016 A weak global economy and volatility on the financial markets stopped the US Federal Reserve from raising interesting rates for only the second time since the financial crisis last month. Minutes from March’s meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), released this evening, showed that even though the US jobs market continued to perform [...]
Oil price yo-yos back up as the latest US stockpiles show a surprise fall April 6, 2016 The oil price has bounced today after stockpiles in the US showed a shock decline, despite investors expecting a new record high. The oil price is up today by around five per cent, with international benchmark Brent crude trading at $39.77, while US oil hit $37.96. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that stocks of [...]
Startups founded during the recession could be the reason why Britain lags on productivity April 6, 2016 Britain’s startups could be the missing piece of the “productivity puzzle” which has had economists and policymakers scratching their heads in recent years, according to new research by the innovation body Nesta. Working with number crunchers at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), Nesta found that new firms – those founded since the recession [...]