A historic night for Labour as pattern of wider victory emerges
Speaking after the recent Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election victory, a delighted Keir Starmer told activists they had “blown the doors off”.
Today, with two history-making wins under the belts in Tamworth, Staffordshire, and leafy commuter belt Mid Bedfordshire, they’ve gone and done it again – bigger.
Huge majorities were overturned. Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice said the government was “staring defeat in the face” next year without a dramatic turnout. Words like ‘stunning’ and ‘annihilation’ are being used.
And after 13 years of his party in power, it’s difficult for Sunak to know where to go.
The Prime Minister used this month’s party conference speech to present himself as the change candidate – and claim Labour offered more of the same old politics.
Some would argue it’s his only option, and others would stress the public knows when it’s being taken for a ride.
It’s worth noting the two former Tory MPs – she of the long goodbye, Nadine Dorries, and disgraced former deputy chief whip Chris ‘Pincher by nature’ – had become unpopular.
Even tainted, by association with fellow former MP Boris Johnson’s government.
After partygate, were voters throwing the baby out with the bathwater to show their disapproval?
Maybe – and there’s vanishingly little chance such swings, of 23.9 and 20.9 per cent – will be replicated everywhere at a general election, whenever that may be.
Another factor is the size of the Reform UK vote; bigger, in both seats, than the size of Labour’s majority. Could this be repeated, dragging Tory votes to both the left and right?
What we do know this morning is that, without question, a pattern is emerging. The Conservatives have now lost eight by-elections since 2019.
Voters, when given a pencil and paper and the privacy of the ballot box, are making choices that align with Labour’s much vaunted 20-point poll lead.
The party will be eager to see just how far they can ride this gathering wave.