What should we make of Makerfield?
Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party’s national fortunes – but how should we assess it on its own terms? Asks Steve Akehurst
It can be stated without much hyperbole that when the people of Makerfield go to the polls next week it will be in one of the most consequential by-elections in British political history. Such a contest struggles to avoid becoming lost in wider narratives, making it hard to assess on a local level and compare it to what current polling tells us. How should we think of the contest in its own terms, then?
Firstly, if Andy Burnham becomes the MP for Makerfield in a week’s time – as polling suggests he will do – it will be a remarkable over-performance from him as a candidate. As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling and the government’s unpopularity in the country. Given individual candidates are typically only thought to add a handful of points to any given election locally, if he makes it, it shouldn’t be neglected how impressive that is. It will prove his personal appeal is real – at least for now.
If Andy Burnham becomes the MP for Makerfield in a week’s time – as polling suggests he will do – it will be a remarkable over-performance from him as a candidate
The other thing it will represent is a significant under-performance for Reform. This is target seat number 29 for Farge’s outfit, meaning it’s one they should be comfortably winning if they want to form the next government (remember: they have eight MPs currently and need 326 for a majority). It would reflect a broader pattern of Nigel Farage’s party under-performing its national polling when tilting for seats in national legislatures, rather than just council races.
Any loss will likely mean Rupert Lowe’s Restore – a party even further to Reform’s right – has eaten away at Reform’s vote. This bodes ill for Farage’s prospects in other seats where Lowe fields candidates. Restore breaking five per cent or so will confirm they are a real phenomenon and not just social media froth. This will be good for Labour in the short-term (making Burnham more likely to triumph in this contest) but otherwise worrying for those of a progressive disposition.
Underestimating Reform?
Should Reform win, on the other hand, it will bring back concerns that pollsters are not sufficiently capturing their vote – or that the Restore vote collapsed late on into Farage’s campaign.
Returning to the prospect of a Burnham victory, the lessons Labour take from it will also matter to how we are governed. If the polling is correct, Burnham is succeeding in Makerfield largely because of efficiency. He is clawing back Labour 2024 voters that had mostly been lost to indecision, apathy or another left-wing party. Where some Labour voters have been lost to Reform, he has plugged the gap with Lib Dems, Greens and an important sliver of Reform 2024 voters drawn to his platform. It will offer hope to Labour MPs that a cross-class winning coalition can still be revived for the party.
Much of Burnham’s coalition locally is simply desperate to stop Reform; some will be just drawn to him personally and not the party per se. But a critical majority appear to be motivated by the same thing that’s driven a lot of things in our politics since 2016: the chance to roll the dice and press the big red button marked ‘change’. The challenge for Burnham from there will be making sure he isn’t the latest in a long line of politicians to latch onto that six letter word, only to return a yawning gap between rhetoric and reality.
Steve Akehurst is director Persuasion UK