Wenger and Redknapp can serve up goal feast
ARSENAL vs TOTTENHAM
TOMORROW 12.45PM – SKY SPORTS
ACE OF BASE were topping the charts with their monster hit ‘All That She Wants’ the last time Tottenham won at Arsenal. Since then the Gunners have won nine and drawn seven of the 16 games at Highbury and the Emirates, while since the inception of the Premier League in 1992/93, Spurs have won just two of 69 away games at the Big Four.
The Lilywhites’ recent form away to the Big Four is particularly poor, going W0-D9-L16 since 2003/04. However, both teams go into this crucial game in the Champions League places and on the same number of points. Boylesports are a best-priced 5/1 about Spurs claiming an unlikely win, but that isn’t big enough to tempt me. It is interesting, though, that Harry Redknapp has a strong record against Arsene Wenger. Since he left West Ham in 2001, he has drawn nine of eleven against the Frenchman, as boss of Portsmouth, Southampton and Tottenham.
Arsenal have been fantastic at home recently, winning eight of their last nine – all by the half-time / full-time double, all by at least two goals and scoring 29 in the process. Although, it’s worth pointing out that all of these victories have been against teams 10th or lower in the table at the time. Their record against top eight outfits is disappointing, having won just two (W2-D3-L3) of their last eight since the start of last season – and one of those being against the eventually relegated Newcastle.
The draw at 3/1 on Betdaq is probably the safest option, but there is plenty to indicate that it won’t be a dull game. Both managers hold attacking philosophies and it doesn’t come as a surprise to see that seven of the Gunners’ nine Premier League games this season have produced four goals or more, including all four at the Emirates. Spurs have also been involved in some exciting games, with nine of their 10 featuring at least three and four seeing four or more. It will be difficult for punters to forget last year’s 4-4 classic, but that was by no means a one-off; the previous eight derbies across all competitions have produced an average of 3.75 goals per game.
Log-on to Bettorlogic.com for full analysis of this game and to view their in-depth Form Lab PRO betting tool.
POINTERS…
Match to be drawn at 3/1 on Betdaq
2-2 correct scoreline at 16/1 on Betdaq
Buy total match goals at 3.3 with Sporting Index
MANCHESTER UNITED vs BLACKBURN ROVERS
TOMORROW 5.30PM – ESPN
BOTH of these sides go into this game on a recovery mission after suffering defeats at Anfield and Stamford Bridge last week. Sam Allardyce has obviously had his fair share of problems over the past fortnight with the swine flu outbreak and the 5-0 stuffing at Chelsea, but things could be looking much worse by 7.30pm.
United are as short as 1/7 with Hills, while Blackburn are as big as 20/1 with Boylesports to claim their first away win of the season. They actually haven’t taken a point on the road yet this season and Bettorlogic analysis shows that United have won all 16 home games against bottom-half sides since 2007/08. Rovers on the other hand have lost all of their last nine away at the Big Four.
It’s been the manner of these defeats which will concern Rovers fans – eight of their nine losses at Big Four sides have been by a two-goal margin and four of the last five have been by four goals or more. To temper fears of a thrashing it’s worth pointing out that, although United have won six of their seven home games this season (across all competitions), they have all been by just the one goal.
The Red Devils have taken longer to warm to their task in recent seasons than some of the other Big Four and they are probably overdue giving one of the lesser teams a hammering. Of the 16 games they have won against bottom-half sides, 12 have been to nil, nine by at least two goals and five by three or more. An interesting spread betting strategy might be to wait until half-time to buy United’s supremacy with Sporting Index – especially if they’re no more than one goal up. Blackburn have conceded 16 goals on the road this season – 10 of those coming in the second half.
POINTERS…
Man United to win to nil at 4/5 with Boylesports
Buy Man United supremacy at HT with Sporting Index
BOLTON vs CHELSEA
TOMORROW 3.00PM
CHELSEA have been such a dominant force at Stamford Bridge in recent seasons, but their record against Bolton is actually far better at the Reebok than it is in West London. In the last six seasons, they’ve only won two at home, drawing three and losing the other; whereas in Lancashire they’ve won the last six meetings, four times by a 2-0 scoreline and the other two 1-0.
Gary Megson’s side picked up a good win against Everton last weekend, but they have lost eight of their last nine home games against Big Four teams, including their last seven. They have also suffered five of those defeats by the half-time / full-time double, while Chelsea have won eight of their last 14 away matches by the half-time / full-time result against teams between ninth and 15th in the table.
The Blues have a strong record coming off a previous away defeat when facing bottom-half sides on the road, winning seven of the last nine since 2004/05 (W7-D1-L1). Carlo Ancelotti’s men look a decent bet to win this game and it really is incredible that Bolton haven’t scored against them in the last six here. Spread bettors willing to take a risk may be interested in buying the time of the first Bolton goal at 66 minutes with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
Chelsea HT / FT at 11/10 on Betdaq
Chelsea to win 2-0 at 6/1 on Betdaq
Sell total match goals at 2.8 with Sporting Index