US recovery looks in doubt as Fed activity index collapses
THE US recovery faltered in August, according to the Chicago Fed’s national activity index released yesterday.
The headline indicator fell from minus 0.12 in July to minus 0.87 in August – below the minus 0.7 level that is consistent with weak recovery. Figures above zero indicate more robust growth.
The three-month moving average also slipped, down from minus 0.26 in July to minus 0.47 in August, implying that the slump may not be a short blip.
The other main index, which measures 85 different individual indicators, slipped to minus 0.23 from minus 0.08. This reflected an improvement in 29 indicators, and a worsening in 55 indicators – one was unchanged.
The biggest shift was in production-related indicators, which taken together collapsed from plus 0.08 in July to minus 0.58 in August.