Third Intention and Carrickboy look massive Plate value at 20/1
NEVER have the words “tread carefully” been more appropriately used when it comes to solving the betting mystery that is the Byrne Group Plate (4.00pm). The last six renewals have seen not only 66/1 and 50/1 winners, but also a 33/1 and 25/1 shot to add salt to the wounds of form students.
In fact, only one market leader has justified that tag in the last decade and bookmakers will be licking their lips in anticipation. AP McCoy has picked Colour Squadron over Tap Night, but both horses look pretty short in the betting considering they hold no secrets from the handicapper.
Irish raider Sraid Padraig has been really well-supported in recent weeks and may be a lot better than he’s showed so far in Ireland. He seemed to improve dramatically for the better ground last time and is the one I’d fancy most of the leading contenders at a genral 9/1.
However, THIRD INTENTION was sixth in the Grade Two Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival and the handicapper is being potentially lenient by allowing him to run here off a mark of 143 – 8lbs lower than this time last season. The Tizzard team have always held him in high regard and his loss of form has been more to do with sickness than anything else. He showed last time he was on the way back and I cannot leave him unbacked at 20/1 with BetBright.
Trainer Venetia Williams has had her string in rude health all season and has won three of the last seven renewals of this race. Last year’s 50/1 shock winner CARRICKBOY somehow manages to race off just a 4lb higher mark this time and showed definite signs of life at Wincanton in January. I know this has been the plan all season and certainly wouldn’t put you off a small each-way bet again at 20/1 with BetBright.
Pointers…
THIRD INTENTION e/w 4.00pm Cheltenham
CARRICKBOY e/w 4.00pm Cheltenham
@BillEsdaile