THE TIPSTER WEAK DOLLAR OFFERS BUYING OPPORTUNITIES
THE dominant theme in the currency markets at the moment is the question mark hanging over the value of the dollar and whether the greenback’s weakness will continue.
The single currency is once again at the key $1.50 level as the weak dollar continues to drive euro-dollar higher. There is strong resistance between 1.5000 and 1.5060, so the rally may be ripe for a technical pullback to the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around 1.4892 or even the 50-day SMA and support levels around 1.4740. Spreadex has a spot euro-dollar rate of 1.4995-1.5000.
Cable is proving to be very volatile in recent days, breaking out of a key resistance level of around 1.6640 on Monday and shooting all the way to three-month highs at 1.6844, where there was significant technical resistance. A low risk/high probability play is to buy US dollar at these level with stops at Monday’s high. Cable is likely to see a swift move back to 1.64 if not lower. FairFX are quoting a market price of $1.6690.
Against the yen, the dollar has managed to avoid complete capitulation but a double bottom looks to have formed in the US dollar-Japanese yen pair. The pressure is on and a test of the recent lows cannot be discounted. Capital Spreads is quoting ¥90.14-¥90.16
While North America and Western Europe are still discussing stimulus packages, the Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts bumper growth in the months ahead. If yields on the Aussie continue to appreciate, then Australian dollar-US dollar parity is on the cards for the first time since July 1982. IG Index’s current price is US$0.92878-US$0.92898.