The centre-right is in retreat across Europe: here’s how to restore it
The centre-right dominated post-war European politics, but those days are over. To beat populist insurgents, conservatives must remember the ten Cs, says Joe Harrison
Squeezed between Labour and Reform, the Tories are in a desperate struggle for political breathing room. It is tempting to pin this relevance crisis on past blunders – Liz Truss’s infamous mini-budget springs to mind. Yet the party’s problems stem from much more than just a few rough years in office. In truth, they tie into an identity crisis that is threatening centre-right parties across Europe.
Throughout most of Europe’s post-war history, the term ‘centre-right’ was virtually synonymous with electoral success. In the UK, between 1945 and 2000, only one Conservative Party leader – William Hague – failed to reach Number 10. Meanwhile, in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has held the Chancellorship for 49 years; more than twice the time of its main rival, the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
However, these halcyon days have long since passed. The decline is particularly acute in the UK, where the Conservatives recently sank as low as fourth in YouGov’s voter-intention polling. Yet even where the centre-right still governs, the decline is unmistakable. In Ireland, although Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have maintained a centre-right monopoly on power since 1922, their joint vote share has collapsed, falling from almost 70 per cent in 2007 to just 43 per cent in 2024. Germany tells a similar story. Although the CDU recently returned to power under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, its 2024 victory came from just 29 per cent of the popular vote – the party’ second worst result ever.
A clear, compelling identity
If these once-dominant parties are ever to recover their former glory, they must first rediscover a clear, compelling identity – one anchored in enduring, recognisable policy priorities. This is the central argument of a new report from Bright Blue and the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS), which charts a path forward for the European centre-right.
This identity has become increasingly blurry in recent years. On economics, the centre-right is difficult to differentiate from the centre-left. Centre-right governments – in the five countries the Bright Blue & KAS report studied – consistently, over the course of history, delivered higher GDP growth and per capita growth relative to non-centre-right governments. But, since the rise of ‘third way’ politics, centre-left parties have increasingly encroached on the centre-right’s traditional, economically liberal turf – Rachel Reeves’ austerity-lite approach exemplifies this trend. Simultaneously, centre-right parties have themselves worsened this overlap by drifting in a statist direction, especially in response Covid and the cost-of-living crisis.
On economics, the centre-right is difficult to differentiate from the centre-left – Rachel Reeves’ austerity-lite approach exemplifies this trend
A similar problem arises in dealing with populist challengers. Across Europe, the centre-right struggles to engage with genuine problems such as immigration or law and order without each response seeming like an opportunistic, knee-jerk attempt to parrot the populists.
The centre-right’s survival depends on forging a distinct identity – one that stands apart from the centre-left and has original ideas for engaging with issues currently owned by populists. The Bright Blue and KAS report suggests ten Cs around which this identity could be framed: a love for country, embrace of capitalism, a mindset of copiousness and abundance, a promise of competence, rewarding contribution, support for community, maintaining civility, encouraging care, protecting children and conservation of the environment. A return to post-war dominance may seem like a very distant ambition, but for the centre-right to make any steps in that direction, it must first rediscover its identity.
For many years now, the only reason to vote for the centre-right was to stop the other side from coming in. It is no longer enough for centre-right parties to merely concern themselves with what they are standing against; it is high time for them to think seriously about what they are standing for.
Joe Harrison is a researcher at Bright Blue