The case against devolution? Wales’ declining education system
Devolution is great when it works. But where are the sanctions for poor outcomes like Wales’ appalling education results, asks Paul Ormerod
A key part of the agenda of the Burnham government is the devolution of decision making to the regions. For example, regional mayors are to be given greater control over income tax revenues.
Into the fray steps the formidable chair of the Treasury Select Committee, Dame Meg Hillier MP.
Concerns have been raised that local leaders could misuse cash injections. Hillier is adamant that her committee should remain the appropriate body to judge whether these regional funds are being spent appropriately.
She supports the Prime Minister’s aim to devolve decision making on spending. But Hillier insists that it is “absolutely critical… that strong, clear scrutiny structures are established which match this move to localism”.
We have only to take a single example from Wales to appreciate her concerns.
The damning results of devolution in Wales
Devolution here of course has gone considerably further than in the English regions. Since 1999 the Welsh have had their own parliament, the Senedd. Matters devolved include health, education, economic development, transport, the environment, agriculture, local government.
Recent evidence of the effectiveness of the Welsh government in education emerged last month with the publication of the prestigious Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) by the OECD.
Published every three years, PISA is regarded as the gold standard metric for international comparisons of the educational attainment of school students.
The evidence on Wales is damning. Whilst England showed a distinct improvement on the 2023 scores, Wales fell further behind. Although in reading Wales was close to the average of the countries in the PISA exercise, in both maths and science Wales is significantly below the average.
Indeed, it appears that children in Wales are almost two full years behind those in England in terms of educational attainment. The results were particularly poor for children who took the tests in Welsh, the promotion of the use of Welsh being a shared aim over the years of both Labour and Plaid Cymru.
The Welsh government is the beneficiary of great largesse courtesy of the English taxpayer. The fiscal deficit in Wales – the amount by which government spending exceeds government receipts from taxation – is over 20 per cent of GDP. It has been around this figure for at least 15 years.
But there is no accountability for the use of these massive subsidies, other than to the electorate of Wales. True, Labour was booted out of power very decisively in the Senedd elections earlier this year. But in many ways Labour and its Plaid successor are just two sides of the same coin.
Similar stories abound in the devolved nations of Scotland and Wales. Much has already been written, for example, about the scandal, there is no other word for it, around the building of two new ferries in Scotland.
Poor outcomes need sanctions
A particular reason why Andy Burnham dislikes the present system is the need for local authorities to bid every year for pots of money from central government. He obviously experienced it directly as Greater Manchester Mayor.
It certainly makes sense to have a multi-year settlement over three or five years say. And some sort of interim scrutiny from the centre is also probably needed.
But the scrutiny should be around outcomes rather than the precise way in which a city-region has spent its funds. The local areas should be deemed to know how to spend the money, rather than it being to a large extent dictated by Whitehall.
What is missing is any sort of sanction for delivering poor outcomes. English taxpayers continue to pour money into Wales, for example, no matter how inefficiently the funds are used.
Assessing the impact of policies is never easy. But future settlements to the devolved regions and nations should depend in part on how well they are judged to have performed.
Paul Ormerod is an honorary professor at the Alliance Business School at the University of Manchester. You can follow him on Instagram @profpaulormerod