George Osborne’s plans for government-backed credit will be a terrible mistake March 20, 2012 TODAY is Budget day and I fear the chancellor is about to announce some really bad proposals to offer extra credit to house-buyers, small business owners and school-leavers. These are based on ideas spawned from the financial crisis’s original sin: the fallacy that what ails the economy is too much free-market capitalism, rather than too [...]
FX MARKETS FOLLOWING THE BOND MARKETS RATHER THAN EQUITIES March 19, 2012 DIRECTOR OF CURRENCY RESEARCH, GFT OVER the past several weeks, the FX market has undergone a monumental change. Bonds not stocks have become the primary driver of trade for currencies and that one dynamic has been able to explain most of the movement in the dollar both up and down. Instead of the old mantra [...]
Rating blow must act as wake-up call March 14, 2012 FIRST it was Moody’s, now it is Fitch’s turn. Ahead of next week’s Budget, the decision by the credit rating agency to put the UK on negative credit watch last night is another blow to George Osborne, the chancellor, who had made retaining Britain’s AAA-rating a key priority. Fitch’s decision puts the chance of a [...]
Dollar boosted by Fed QE3 stimulus restraint March 14, 2012 THE Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) followed expectations by holding rates yesterday, and at the same time dispelled the possibility of an immediate third round of quantitative easing (QE3). Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke pointed to “an improving economic situation”, though checked any untoward optimism by acknowledging that economic growth would be moderate. The central [...]
WHAT THE OTHER PAPERS SAY THIS MORNING March 12, 2012 FINANCIAL TIMES EARNINGS FORECASTS TAKE A BULLISH TURN Analysts last week upgraded more companies’ earnings forecasts globally than they downgraded for the first time since May last year. After 41 weeks of consecutive downgrades, net earnings per share revisions for next year turned positive powered by a surge in upgrades of Japanese companies and industrial [...]
Economy is being knocked off course March 11, 2012 IT is not looking too good for George Osborne. The Budget is next week and the economy remains mired in stagnation. It is hard to know for sure what is happening, but all the indications are that growth so far this quarter has been weak. Industrial production actually fell in January, despite a rise in [...]
RAPID RESPONSES March 11, 2012 Wilful ignorance [Re: Britain’s war on the aspirational classes, Tuesday] I agree with you about taxes. But I recall, in the run-up to the 2010 general election, listening to a radio show where callers claimed that the UK was a low-tax economy, thinking this was a bad thing. More recently we have seen support for [...]
RAPID RESPONSES March 8, 2012 Struggling youth [Re: Mortgage time-bomb UK’s top threat, yesterday] I agree that rates will go up in the future, but when will they stop rising? If rates go up to 7 per cent, those who took out mortgages 10 years ago will generally manage. It’s the younger generation who will get hit hardest. Those who [...]
THE LONDON BAROMETER March 8, 2012 SALES DIRECTOR OF DOUGLAS & GORDON In D&G land, February saw the lowest levels of available properties since December 2009 as a result of consumer confidence remaining low, a lack of job security and a knock on affect from economic turmoil in Europe, whilst the number of prospective buyers registering is still at an all-time [...]
Mortgage time-bomb UK’s top threat March 7, 2012 SOME time-bombs can be defused. Not this one. At some point – in a year, in two, or perhaps even in five – the cost of borrowing for consumers will climb back to the sorts of levels we were used to 15 years ago. Complacent borrowers addicted to rock-bottom interest rates – and for whom [...]