Sea The Stars set to Eclipse his rivals
I’VE spent a lot of time this week trying to find a horse to beat SEA THE STARS in the Coral Eclipse and I finally have to admit defeat. There is often a danger of trying to be too clever in your search for reasons to oppose a horse who looks unbeatable on paper. I simply cannot recommend any other runner in tomorrow’s Group One contest and would go far enough to suggest that at 10/11 or even money, John Oxx’s dual Classic winner is indeed worthy of a decent bet.
Those current odds would suggest that Mick Kinane’s mount has only a 50 per cent chance of crossing the line first and that is surely an underestimate of his true chance. I was expecting him to be nearer 1/2 than evens and reckon he’d come out on top on more than five occasions if the race was run ten times. He gets a hefty 11lb weight allowance against his elders and I can see no logical reason why horses with similar profiles (like Nashwan and Authorised) were sent off closer to 2/5.
One of his biggest dangers according to the betting is Aidan O’Brien’s Rip Van Winkle who finished behind him in both the Guineas and the Derby – ironically running on too late in both contests. Now, O’Brien sent out Oratorio to land this contest a few years ago with a very similar profile. He had finished out the frame in both the Guineas and the Derby and arrived at Sandown with plenty to prove. Yet, he was a 12/1 shot that day, which is a hell of a lot bigger than the 7/2 currently available about Rip Van Winkle with Boylesports.
I’m sure Jimmy Fortune, who replaces the suspended Murtagh, will be finishing with a rattle and I’d be amazed if this fellow didn’t make the money. However, he looks far from straightforward and I can see no reason why he should reverse the form with our selection. Conduit looked to have won the Brigadier Gerard over course and distance last time but was beaten on the line by Cima De Triomphe. I’m surprised last year’s St Leger winner is running here rather than at Ascot for the King George in a fortnight’s time as he may get tapped for toe at the business end. I’m more keen on Henry Cecil’s Twice Over at 20/1 if the rain comes as he may have gone too soon at Ascot last time.
Elsewhere on Sandown’s Saturday card and Tim Easterby’s ANGLEZARKE can be backed at 5/1 in the opener and looks a decent each-way bet on the back of a great run at Ascot. She is well drawn and I fancy her to bag the rail and take some catching.
I like the look of Luca Cumani’s ACROSTIC in the Coral Challenge (2.40pm) now that he drops back down to a mile and gets his favoured fast ground. He looks too big at around the 8/1 mark each-way. Finally, Michael Bell has his team in great form and his ALLIED POWERS can go very close at around 12/1 in the Old Newton Cup (3.30pm) at Haydock. He’ll relish the step back up to 12 furlongs and may well be a Group horse running in a handicap for the last time.
Pointers…
ANGLEZARKE e/w (2.05pm, Sandown, tomorrow)
ACROSTIC e/w (2.40pm, Sandown, tomorrow)
SEA THE STARS (3.15pm, Sandown, tomorrow)
ALLIED POWERS e/w (3.30pm, Haydock, tomorrow)