Rugby Betting Tips: Japan braced for Scottish battering
JAPAN VS SCOTLAND
BEATING the bookies on the handicap betting can be tricky.
Unsure whether we’re going to see a demolition job from the top tier nations or a spirited performance from the underdog, calling the winning margin hasn’t been easy at the Rugby World Cup.
We’ve seen the likes of Georgia keep Wales within 30 points, Japan beat Ireland, and Tonga almost take the scalp of France, while on the contrary, we’ve also seen a handful of 60-point slaughterings.
On Sunday, you can call a halt to the numbers game of handicap betting and lump on Scotland to beat Japan at 4/6 – it’s as simple as that.
Confidence about taking that price may not have been so strong after the opening round of games, where Scotland were convincingly beaten 27-3 by Ireland and Japan prevailed with a plucky 30-10 win over Russia.
However, as the tournament has panned out, Japan’s 20-point win over Russia seems no real triumph given the defeated have gone on to concede a further 130 points and now have the joint-second worst points difference in the tournament.
The hosts have shown flashes of brilliance and phases of well-structured play, enough to suggest that, on their day, they could cause another upset reminiscent of their famous 34-32 win over South Africa four years ago.
However, if you simulated Scotland versus Japan 10 times, the former would come out on top in at least seven or eight of them, not six as the odds suggest.
Add to that the fact that Scotland are coming off the back of two big wins to nil against Russia and Samoa and you have to fancy them to overcome Japan regardless of home advantage.
The crowd will be willing Japan on and that certainly played a big part in them securing a bonus point over Samoa in their last match.
Some 30,000 of the home crowd roared the Cherry Blossoms over the line for a last-gasp try off of a five-metre scrum and the same level of noise will help them lift their game once more this weekend.
There will be times where Japan light up the game, put Scotland on the back foot and possibly go ahead on the scoreboard, but a well-drilled Gregor Townsend side should have enough to win this.
Being slightly greedy, Scotland are around 9/4 to win by 1-10 points, but lets keep this one simple.
Take the 4/6 with Sporting Index and cheer on the Scots.
To add even more excitement, a play on the same firm’s spreads could turn a nice profit.
Sporting Index go 2-5 in favour of Scotland in their match supremacy market, meaning they expect Townsend’s men to triumph by a very narrow margin.
Given a shock Japan win would likely be achieved by the narrowest of margin, the potential downside of buying Scotland at 5 looks minimal.
Every point over 5 that Scotland pull away from the hosts you’ll be making money, while it’s hard to see Japan running up a big bill if things got the other way.
IRELAND VS SAMOA
AS RAIN threatens to derail some of the more high-profile matchups of the final weekend of group games at the Rugby World Cup, Ireland v Samoa looks to have escaped the clutches of Typhoon Hagibis.
The Irish have had an underwhelming tournament so far, yet are set to qualify from their pool.
After a lacklustre display against Japan, they bounced back by professionally dispatching Russia, and a result against a Samoan side that hasn’t lacked heart should be a formality.
Samoa showed serious character against Japan last time out, yet still managed to lose by 19 points, and it has ultimately been a disappointing tournament for the Samoans.
The underdogs will be playing for pride, while Joe Schmidt’s side will look to generate some momentum to take into an enthralling knockout clash against either New Zealand or South Africa.
The handicap sits at 27.5 currently with Sporting Index’s fixed odds, and while I fully expect Ireland to achieve a bonus point win, I don’t think the winning margin will be that high.
Ireland will look to execute a clean set-piece and regain some confidence, but Samoa will want to leave their mark on the tournament, so a feisty affair could be on the cards.
Samoa with a 27.5-point lead looks to be about right, and Steve Jackson’s men look good value for that at 5/6.
Most of the top nations haven’t had it all their own way against Pacific Island teams this World Cup, with Australia and England well-tested until pulling away in the final 20, and Wales also facing a scare against Fiji until late in the day.
Ireland’s higher levels of fitness should tell in the last quarter of the game, but the first half could be a tight affair.
Samoa (+10.5) on the first-half handicap is 5/4 with Sporting Index, and if the game follows the patterns of previous clashes with South Sea nations, this could be an astute bet.
Samoa HT (+10.5) 5/4
Samoa (+27.5) 5/6
Buy Scotland 5