Central banks are right to raise rates, even with banking on the precipice of a crisis Jumana Saleheen This morning Andrew Bailey and the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England rose interest rates to 4.25 per cent, even after the shock merger between Credit Suisse and UBS, and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, writes Jumana Saleheen Decisions from central banks over the last week demonstrate an ongoing effort to bring [...]
Knowing V, Knowing U: The shape of the recession On Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics released data on UK GDP for the month of May. It showed that the economy had recovered by just 1.8 per cent in May, following a sharp contraction of 20.4 per cent in April. Many commentators and economists voiced their disappointment at these figures, and ruled out the [...]
How coronavirus could cause a global recession Covid-19 has dominated news headlines since mid-January. The human and social costs have been heavy, disrupting the normality of life primarily in China but also around the world. Now the recent outbreaks in Italy, Iran and South Korea have ignited fears of a global pandemic, and in response major equity indices have plummeted by nearly [...]
DEBATE: Will the coronavirus outbreak have a long-term impact on the Chinese economy? February 4, 2020 Will the coronavirus outbreak have a long-term impact on the Chinese economy? Emma Wall, head of investment analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, says YES. Gross domestic product is split into three sectors which drive growth: agricultural, industrial, and services. Agriculture, which makes up seven per cent of China’s GDP, has already taken a significant hit in [...]
DEBATE: Is the Bank of England out of ammunition for the next recession? January 22, 2020 Is the Bank of England out of ammunition for the next recession? Jumana Saleheen, chief economist at commodities consultant CRU Group, says YES. Lessons from history: central banks need to cut interest rates by about five percentage points in a recession. So if rates were six per cent, they would need to drop to one [...]
Do central banks have enough firepower to fight the next recession? January 17, 2020 By the end of 2019, the UK and US had achieved a decade recession free. That’s an impressive feat, but fears of a recession remain. In fact, those fears peaked last year due to worrying signals from financial markets. When the next recession does raise its head, it will be up to our central banks [...]
