Construction firms lose hope but businesses are ‘showing resilience’ April 30, 2025 Construction firms have grown despondent about their business prospects despite signs of resilience across the UK economy, a new survey has found. The sector is key to the housing secretary Angela Rayner’s plans to build 1.5m homes by 2030 though early signs suggest the ambitious target will not be met. Construction saw a bigger drop [...]
Trump, tariffs and GDP: How do you forecast uncertainty? April 12, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), one of the UK’s central forecasters, prepared itself for President Trump’s tariff war – or at least partially. At a presentation after Chancellor Reeves’ Spring Statement, OBR chair Richard Hughes admitted the fiscal watchdog’s central forecast risked being completely undermined by global events. Hughes came up with three possible [...]
UK growth in February smashes low expectations April 11, 2025 The UK economy grew by 0.5 per cent in February, official data has shown, beating forecasters’ expectations by a wide margin. A Bloomberg poll of economists predicted growth to come in at 0.1 per cent for the month. UK GDP grew 0.6 per cent in the three months to February, the Office for National Statistics [...]
IFS director: Tariffs risk undermining ‘best case’ OBR forecasts April 1, 2025 Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) director Paul Johnson has raised questions about whether the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s forecasts would remain credible should President Trump slap tariffs on UK goods on Wednesday. The OBR’s report included modelling by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published in January. The IMF’s analysis did not consider the potential [...]
OBR chair: Reeves is exposed to ‘inevitable’ shocks April 1, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)’s chair Richard Hughes said Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s small headroom means the Treasury has left itself exposed to “inevitable” economic shocks. The role of the fiscal watchdog has come under greater scrutiny since Reeves made cuts totalling £14bn in order to meet her fiscal rules at last week’s Spring Statement. [...]
MPC member: Trump tariffs won’t push UK inflation higher March 27, 2025 Interest rate-setter Swati Dhingra has suggested that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are unlikely to move UK inflation measures despite taking a toll on growth. The Bank of England held its interest rates at 4.5 per cent last week. External member Dhingra voted alone in favour of a cut in an 8-1 decision. Speaking at [...]
Rachel Reeves criticises deputy for ‘clumsy’ pocket money comments March 27, 2025 Rachel Reeves has criticised her deputy – Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones – for “clumsy” comments in which he compared slashing disability benefits to taking away a child’s pocket money. The Chancellor told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme: “No, he was clumsy in his analogy, and he’s apologised for that.” She added: “Of [...]
Spring Statement 2025: ‘Very small’ headroom risks getting erased again, OBR warns March 26, 2025 Rachel Reeves faces the prospect of her newly-restored fiscal headroom being wiped out again ahead of the Autumn budget, raising the spectre of fresh take hikes in the future as she battles sluggish growth and economic headwinds. The Chancellor had previously left herself £9.9bn of headroom but the OBR calculated the UK was in fact [...]
Spring Statement 2025: OBR slashes growth forecast March 26, 2025 The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has slashed its growth forecast in half to one per cent as Chancellor Rachel Reeves said she was “not happy” about the revised figures. Reeves has insisted that high growth is key to Labour’s mission in government, while Prime Minister Keir Starmer has previously suggested that it is aiming for a rate [...]
Spring Statement 2025: What is it – and when will Rachel Reeves speak? March 25, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to update MPs on the state of the UK economy and make a range of economic policy announcements on Wednesday afternoon at the Spring Statement. She is also set to give updates on the government’s plan to go “further and faster” on delivering growth. The Spring Statement will come as [...]