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OBR forecast

  • ‘Spend now, pay later’ – Reeves drags a million more Brits into higher rate tax

    November 26, 2025

    Nearly a million more people will be dragged into paying the higher rate of income tax as Rachel Reeves took the UK’s tax burden to an all-time high. In a Budget that aims to raise some £26bn in extra government revenue by the end of parliament, Reeves extended the income tax thresholds freeze, which economists [...]

  • Autumn Budget: Don’t let OBR gaffe mask Labour’s own mistakes

    November 26, 2025

    The OBR's mistake was spectacular but accidental. The same can't be said for Labour, whose Budget missteps will do nothing to shift the economy.

  • Autumn Budget Live: Wealthy, landlords and pensions hit in £26bn tax raid

    November 26, 2025

    Welcome back to the City AM liveblog. In a shocking turn of events the UK fiscal watchdog has accidentally released the economic forecasts – intended to be published after the Budget – before the Chancellor even took to the despatch box. Rachel Reeves has raised taxes by £26bn in her second Budget, which follows on [...]

  • Budget Day: The good, the bad and the ugly

    November 26, 2025

    It seems as if we’ve been speculating about the contents of today’s Budget since the moment Rachel Reeves sat down after delivering her first one, just over a year ago. Since then, unemployment has risen (every month) and growth rates have slumped quarter-to-quarter from 0.7 per cent to 0.3 per cent to 0.1 per cent. [...]

  • Tax row erupts as Reeves tells watchdog she will break manifesto

    November 7, 2025

    The Labour government is split in a fresh tax row after Rachel Reeves reportedly told the fiscal watchdog she will raise income tax in her forthcoming Autumn Budget – a move that will break a key manifesto pledge. The Chancellor is said to have informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that an increase to income [...]

  • Rachel Reeves set for £20bn OBR productivity downgrade

    October 28, 2025

    Rachel Reeves’ ballooning fiscal black hole is set to deepen as the fiscal watchdog hands the Chancellor its final productivity forecast on Friday. The Treasury is already battling to contain public finances after a U-turn on welfare reforms ruined hopes of £5bn in savings, and a £190bn spending splurge on government departments helped erode the Chancellor’s wafer-thin [...]

  • Autumn Budget: ‘Window is closing’ on Labour’s growth mission

    October 9, 2025

    Ahead of the Autumn Budget, City Reporter Samuel Norman sits down with top industry names for a Budget Briefing. This week, chief executive of BusinessLDN shares what he thinks could be the capital’s 21st century moment. The “window is closing” on the government’s mission to achieve economic growth, the boss of London’s business advocacy group [...]

  • Rachel Reeves vs the Hydra (the black hole that keeps on growing)

    October 8, 2025

    Super-heroine Rachel Reeves is in battle with a mythical beast that keeps multiplying, and the OBR won't help her, writes Paul Ormerod.

  • Reeves warned ‘sin taxes’ could fail to boost tax receipts

    September 1, 2025

    Labour officials have been warned that plans to boost government revenue by raising “sin taxes” could be judged harshly by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) this year, with industry bosses calling on the Treasury to listen to “on-the-ground concerns” before making a final decision.  Reports have suggested the government could raise gambling levies later [...]

  • Rachel Reeves risks ‘serious damage’ with tax hikes, OBR member warns

    July 11, 2025

    Fears of another Rachel Reeves’ tax raid are growing after fresh figures revealed the economy shrank in May, but a member of the OBR has warned the Chancellor against drastic measures, including tax hikes. The Chancellor is facing renewed pressure, with economists warning that the government’s £190bn spending splurge, sporadic U-turns, and poor growth figures are set [...]

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