Will the Autumn Budget push up inflation? Economics For a few weeks, there was one thing Rachel Reeves appeared to speak about more than anything else: inflation. Earlier this month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed inflation hit 3.8 per cent in the year to September, nearly double the Bank of England’s target rate. The IMF and the OECD said the UK [...]
OBR ‘downgrades productivity’ in major pre-Budget blow to Rachel Reeves Economics The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has reportedly told Chancellor Rachel Reeves that it will downgrade productivity forecasts for the UK economy, blowing a hole in the public finances and making tax hikes all but guaranteed at this year’s November Budget. In another setback for the Labour government, the OBR has informed the Treasury that [...]
UK government borrowing since April hits £60bn Economics The UK government borrowed a total of £1.1bn last month, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), compared to £2.3bn last year and below the fiscal watchdog’s £2.6bn forecast. The total deficit hit £60bn in the months since April, which is £6.7bn more than in the same four-month period of 2024 and the third-highest [...]
Starmer refuses to rule out tax rises – and criticises forecasters August 6, 2025 The Prime Minister has refused to comment on whether he will break Labour’s manifesto pledges on taxes at this year’s Autumn Budget as he slapped down independent forecasters’ claims the government faced a £50bn black hole. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claimed Rachel Reeves would miss her borrowing target by £41.2bn [...]
The Bank of England’s trouble-free decision to cut interest rates August 6, 2025 The Bank of England has long suffered from the accusation of groupthink. Reforms have been mooted – and some have been implemented – but it has struggled to shake off the charge. Economists at the Cato Institute and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) have, for example, pointed the blame at Threadneedle [...]
Rachel Reeves needs £50bn tax raid to stick to fiscal rules, economists warn August 6, 2025 The Treasury will need to raise more than £50bn in fresh taxes to stay within its fiscal rules, one of the UK’s most prestigious economic groups has warned, laying bare the scale of the pain that could be wrought on businesses by Rachel Reeves in the autumn. The government is set to miss its “stability [...]
Reeves may need larger fiscal buffer to ‘build credibility’ June 27, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to make her headroom larger than £9.9bn in the autumn to restore credibility and fund policy U-turns, an economics think tank has warned, prompting warnings that “unpopular tax hikes” are coming down the line. Proposed welfare reforms saved the government £4.8bn at the Spring Statement in a last minute rush [...]
Inflation ‘plateau’ could keep interest rates higher, Bank hawk warns June 24, 2025 Bank of England officials may avoid cutting interest rates as worries inflation will remain above three per cent over the coming months leave policymakers in an “uncomfortable place”, a Monetary Policy Committee member has warned. Speaking at an event hosted by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, external member Megan Greene said the [...]
Reeves’ risky borrowing policies prompt fresh tax hike fears May 20, 2025 Tax hike fears are gathering pace as rising borrowing costs are set to wipe out around half of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ small £9.9bn headroom, a leading economics consultancy has warned. Reeves made around £14bn in spending cuts at her Spring Statement two months ago but left herself with one of the slimmest fiscal buffers on [...]
Is this a sweet trade deal with the EU – or does it sound a bit fishy? May 19, 2025 Keir Starmer will be boasting about his latest catch in international diplomacy: a trade deal with the European Union, which the government hopes will boost the chances of landing higher growth. In an agreement that hands EU boats continued rights in British seas until 2038, slashing red tape on food checks and increasing cooperation on [...]