‘Bond market tantrum risks’: Gilt traders brace for Labour leftward pivot as Starmer future uncertain
Will the Bank of England’s quantitative tightening torpedo Reeves’ fiscal rules? June 5, 2025 Rachel Reeves is in a pickle. At under £10bn, the Chancellor’s self-imposed fiscal headroom – the Treasury’s wiggle room within its fiscal rules – is already wafer-thin by historic standards. And it is under intense strain, given a recent slew of billion-pound government spending pledges such as reversing winter fuel payments cuts and scrapping the [...]
OECD: Rachel Reeves’ ‘insufficient’ fiscal headroom poses risk to UK economy June 3, 2025 The OECD has warned Rachel Reeves’ wafer thin fiscal headroom poses a significant risk to the UK economy as it cut its growth outlook for Britain in 2025 and 2026. The economic organisation urged the Treasury to “step up” efforts to bolster its “very thin” fiscal headroom, expressing concern that it could cause “significant downside [...]
Which taxes could Rachel Reeves raise in the Autumn Budget May 29, 2025 Rising borrowing costs, u-turns on spending cuts and a wafer-thin fiscal headroom all point to one thing: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is widely expected to put up taxes later in the year. But given Labour’s manifesto commitment to avoid tax rises on “working people”, and the pain felt by businesses over National Insurance hikes, many are [...]
UK public spending will swell to more than half of GDP, IMF warns May 28, 2025 The British state will swell to more than half the total size of the UK economy under the government’s current plans, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it sounded the alarm on “tough policy decisions” needed to meet ballooning spending. Total public expenditure is projected to grow by eight percentage points over the next [...]
Reeves warned against bank tax raid May 21, 2025 Rachel Reeves has been warned of the growth consequences of upping tax on lenders after a leaked memo from Angela Rayner called for the Chancellor to launch a cash grab on banks. Reeves was sent a memo by the Deputy Prime Minister ahead of the spring Statement, which called for an annual £700m hike on [...]
Reeves doubles down on fiscal rules amidst waning headroom March 17, 2025 Rachel Reeves doubled down on her fiscal rules in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, despite speculation that economic conditions have left the chancellor with little or no room for manoeuvre. Following the Autumn Budget, Reeves was left with a £9.9bn buffer to maintain her key rule for day-to-day spending to be funded by [...]
Keir Starmer’s defence pledge will prompt ‘tough choices’ on tax February 26, 2025 The Prime Minister confirmed yesterday that defence spending will rise to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027, up from 2.3 per cent at the moment.
Rachel Reeves tax raid ‘unlikely to succeed’, analysts warn February 13, 2025 Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ attempts to put the public finances on firmer ground through tax hikes are “unlikely to succeed,” according to analysts at Oxford Economics. Collecting evidence from a range of ‘fiscal adjustments’ – attempts by governments to balance their budget deficits – Edward Allenby and Adam Slater said attempts to balance the budget through [...]
UK economy to ‘grow twice as fast’ as Europe in 2025 December 5, 2024 The UK economy is set to grow twice as fast as its European counterparts next year thanks to the flurry of spending measures announced in October’s Budget, a top bank has forecast. Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.4 per cent next year, analysts at ING said in the bank’s annual economic outlook, [...]
Borrowing figures show Reeves is in a fiscal bind ahead of Budget October 22, 2024 The latest figures showed that borrowing in September exceeded expectations yet again, driven by higher government spending.