OBR chief: Public ‘have not lowered their expectations about what the state can do’ Politics A top economist at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has sent a warning on the effect more tax rises could have on growth and on the public’s expectations about “what the state can do for them”. Professor David Miles, who is one of three top members at the independent fiscal watchdog, said that the [...]
‘Worryingly large’: Labour’s debt cost racks up to £200bn Economics More than £200bn has now been spent on covering government debt since Labour came into power, official figures show, reflecting the pressure bond traders have put on public finances in the last two years. Analysis of public finances data by City AM shows that debt interest payable to the government’s lenders in bond markets since [...]
We’re walking an economic tightrope and the wind is picking up Economics I spent much of my morning yesterday with a group of City chiefs for a candid (though unfortunately, off the record) chat about the health of our economy and the state of our politics. I feared that my stump speech about the perilous state of our public finances, our low growth rate, the ever-expanding state [...]
OECD sounds alarm on pension triple lock in challenge to Burnham July 15, 2026 The world’s leading independent economic organisation has warned that reform of the triple lock on state pensions is “necessary to reduce fiscal risks”, in a challenge to Andy Burnham as he prepares to take over as Prime Minister. The OECD, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, described the triple lock guarantee as “unusually generous [...]
The devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances July 11, 2026 While much of the media obsesses over Nigel Farage’s fight with a man dressed as a bin, I have something more sobering to discuss as we kick off the weekend. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report into fiscal risks and sustainability, published this week, is comfortably the most alarming yet. This is an annual review [...]
Gloomy Brits’ sluggish spending set to drag on economic growth February 16, 2026 Brits continued to tighten their pockets in January as economists warned sluggish spend from consumers could trigger a “sustained drag on economic growth“. S&P Global’s latest Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) showed a reading of 44.8, indicating further deterioration across household confidence with the figure remaining below the 50.0 mark that indicates neutrality. Whilst it crept [...]
Watchdog warns on ‘fire sale dynamics’ risk in repo market February 4, 2026 The global financial watchdog has urged regulators to cast a closer eye over the ways in which leveraged trades in the short-term repo market could amplify financial stability risks worldwide. Regulators at the Financial Stability Board (FSB) are particularly concerned that leveraged investors might be forced to dump their assets in the event of a [...]
‘Liz Truss-lite’: Is Japan in the midst of a sovereign debt crisis? January 22, 2026 Japan’s long-dated bonds suffered their worst sell-off this century on Tuesday. Ali Lyon asks whether the rout could spark a full-blown debt crisis? For decades, the world’s fixed income investors have been sucked in – and spat out – by an alluring trade on Japan’s government bonds. Secure in their belief that the securities’ unfathomable, [...]
IMF sounds alarm on soaring sovereign debt October 15, 2025 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged governments to bear down on profligate spending after it found government debt was on course to reach 100 per cent of global GDP within the next five years. In its latest Fiscal Monitor report, the world’s preeminent financial institution sounded the alarm on developed and developing nations’ over-reliance [...]
UK second most at risk from debt crisis of all major economies September 29, 2025 The UK is the second most likely major economy to face a debt crisis in the next two years, a fresh survey of financial professionals has found, as investors remain unconvinced by the country’s growth prospects and efforts to keep a lid on spending. According to a Deutsche Bank poll released on Monday, France is [...]