The forthcoming by-election in Oldham West and Royton will be a fascinating contest, prompted by the tragic death of Michael Meacher, an old school conviction politician who worked tirelessly for his constituents.
His death, at a time when the Labour Party is in flux and the Tories are in state of post victory complacency, makes this an extremely interesting time in the electoral cycle and offers huge opportunities for my party: Ukip.
Whether they’ve voted Labour or Conservative in the past, there are very good reasons for people not to do so come 3 December. I, as a local businessman with ties to the community and separate from the political establishment, offer a third alternative.
Labour candidate Jim McMahon will be at odds with the new Corbynite Labour, confined to the backbenches. He will be unable to have any impact on a Labour Party which invites organisations such as the Stop the War coalition to have an input into its defence policy.
On top of that, there is the growing sense that the Labour party that believed in representing the hard working people of our country died a long time ago.
As for the Tory voters in Oldham, there is no incentive to vote for Cameron’s Conservatives for them. The Conservatives will not win, and the constituency doesn’t matter that much to them. Cameron already has a majority and this by-election will not change that.
But they shouldn't be so complacent.
It is reckoned that 70 per cent of Tory supporters are planning to vote to leave the European Union. So, voting Ukip in Oldham would both block another Labour MP, and also to send a message to Number 10 that the whole EU negotiation process is a farce.
Of course, wrapped up in all of this is the question of uncontrolled immigration.
In Oldham wages are low, and will be kept low by the impacts of continued mass immigration. The people who suffer most from this are unsurprisingly first- and second-generation settled migrants. These are traditional Labour voters, who are finding their wages, services, schools, medical care and housing under pressure.
For people in Oldham and Royton this isn’t about high-flying students, and tech startup entrepreneurs so beloved of the London elite.
It is about low-skilled, low-waged migrants competing for the vast majority of those jobs that are available here. To rub salt into the wound, this part of the North West is housing more asylum seekers than the whole of the rich South East, according to a number of reports.
That’s both unfair and even putting more of a strain on already over stretched public services.
Ukip is opposed to mass, uncontrolled immigration. We are the only party prepared to take on the establishment and regain control of our borders. David Cameron is unwilling, unprepared and incapable of doing it. Tories can’t take on the establishment; they are the establishment.
The election will be fascinating.Who knows – a massive upset could be on its way.