This may change your mind about who’s going to win the Premier League
Chelsea may occupy top spot in the Premier League, Manchester City remain the bookmakers’ favourites to win the title in May and Arsenal are hanging in there (somehow), but Liverpool are currently the best team in the division.
That’s according to Kickdex, a stats-based index that assigns a value to every team and player in the top flight and fluctuates according to performance – like the stock market.
Recent wins over Fulham (3-2) and Arsenal (5-1) have lifted Liverpool’s value above that of City, Arsenal and Chelsea – who are ranked in that order – yet it’s still lower than at the start of the season and some way short of its peak just before Christmas (see graph below).
That spike came during a 3-1 win over Cardiff that followed emphatic wins over Tottenham (5-1), West Ham (4-1) and Norwich (5-1). Liverpool’s value dipped with consecutive defeats to City and Chelsea but has picked up since their emphatic Merseyside derby triumph and those victories against Arsenal and Fulham.
Pundits have been quick to praise the “SAS” – Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge – partnership in driving Liverpool’s form, but Kickdex illustrates that the relationship may be more complex relationship.
While Suarez’s peak value coincided with Liverpool’s, it also came when Sturridge was absent. What’s more, it has steadily fallen since Sturridge returned from injury.
Sturridge, on the other hand, has thrived since regaining fitness, to the extent that his value is on course to overtake that of his more celebrated strike partner (see below).
It suggests, then, that while Suarez might bring the best out of Sturridge, it may not be reciprocal.
However, Suarez was always likely to dip following an unsustainable run and remains the best-rated player in the entire Premier League, according to Kickdex. Similarly, Sturridge is scoring at such a rate that he is likely to regress soon.
