Imperial Brands warns Iran war may weigh on costs and consumer demand
One of Britain’s biggest tobacco companies is bracing for a potential slowdown in consumer demand sparked by the conflict in the Middle East as it hikes prices to offset cigarette declines in the first half of the year.
FTSE 100 member Imperial Brands stood by its revenue and profit forecasts for the year, but noted that the Iran war has created a “more uncertain macroeconomic environment”, which could damage sales going forward, despite not being materially impacted yet.
The group said: “While the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in a more uncertain macroeconomic environment, we have not seen a material impact to date.
“We will continue to monitor the situation. The longer this persists, the more likely there could be a more meaningful impact on input costs and consumer demand, including duty free.”
Shares fell 0.6 per cent in early morning trading to 2710p, with the stock down 13.2 per cent since January.
Rising tobacco prices mitigated fallout, causing group revenue to increase 0.8 per cent to £14.7bn for the six months to the end of March.
Tobacco and Next Generation Products (NGP), such as vapes, revenue climbed 1.8 per cent to £3.7bn, caused by “robust tobacco pricing” and increased demand for alternative products, such as vapes, in both Europe and the Asia Pacific region.
Earnings per share increased 5.3 per cent to 127.7p, while the group also hiked its dividend by 4 per cent to 83.3p per share.
NGP scale
The FTSE 100 company reported market share gains across all NGP categories, as it continued to shift its focus towards a growing want for alternatives to cigarettes and disposable vapes.
Demand for modern oral products boosted its market share in the US, while the launch of new products in both the UK and Nordic states capitalised on a consumer shift towards tobacco-free nicotine products.
The group also continued its move towards reusable vapes in a bid to retain customer loyalty, rolling out new products across Europe, increasing market share in both the UK and France, as well as New Zealand.
Heated Products continued its sales momentum, attracting customers across Asia, as well as Italy and Greece.
Lucas Paravicini, chief executive of Imperial Brands, said: “We have seen particularly strong growth in heated tobacco, following the rollout of our Pulze 3.0 device. Our modern oral portfolio has grown strongly in European markets, while in the US we have grown volume share in a competitive market.”
But the group noted that despite the boost in market share, the NGP arm suffered £40m in operating losses in its efforts to launch new products globally.
Sale growth still expected
The group expects to deliver low single-digit tobacco revenue and double-digit NGP growth for the full financial year.
Profit is expected to grow between three and five per cent, driven by continued momentum in Asia and Europe and an improving US performance, but Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, argued the group still has work to do.
He said: “Imperial Brands first half results landed as expected… Strong pricing in tobacco has offset continuing volume declines, and 7.5 per cent increase in next generation products saw a strong performance in Europe and emerging markets, masked by weakness in the US, where heavy discounting saw sales fall.
“With first half underlying operating profit up just 0.6 per cent, there’s still work to do to hit the three to five per cent full-year target. With management holding back on buybacks for now, there’s not much for investors to latch onto today.”