French can upset Ballydoyle hotpots in this weekend’s opening Classics
THE QIPCO British Champions Series, now in its second year, is designed to throw the spotlight on Britain’s best flat races and the first of the 35-race programme is tomorrow afternoon’s 2000 Guineas.
Even though Aidan O’Brien hasn’t saddled the winner of the opening Classic of the season since Henrythenavigator back in 2008, the Ballydoyle maestro will fancy his chances with the highly-regarded Camelot. Last season’s emphatic Racing Post Trophy winner is unbeaten in two career starts and arrives in Newmarket as Coral’s 6/4 favourite.
The son of Montjeu is ultimately being aimed at the Investec Derby but has obviously shown plenty of speed at home. He demonstrated an electric turn of foot when last seen in action at Doncaster and is without doubt the one they all have to beat. However, he lacks experience and at the current prices, I’m prepared to take him on.
Both Born To Sea and Top Offer have huge potential, but with only three racecourse appearances between them, they arguably hold too prominent a position in the market on what they have achieved on the track. Trumpet Major definitely warrants a second look, as his Craven win was impressive, but I’m keen on the chances of French raiders ABTAAL and FRENCH FIFTEEN at 9/1 and 10/1 respectively.
The former was an impressive winner of a Group Three over a mile on his final start as a two-year-old and he was arguably unlucky not to make a winning reappearance in the Prix Djebel last month. He stumbled when being asked to quicken at the furlong pole and lost out to my other selection French Fifteen.
Now, both of these Gallic contenders are proven on soft ground and the deluge Newmarket received on Thursday will ensure that there is plenty of juice in the surface tomorrow. They were also both Group winners over a mile as two-year-olds which means they will stay every yard of the trip and the softer ground will blunt the speed of some of their rivals.
My main worry with Abtaal is the draw as the runners tend to come over to the stand’s side rail when it’s soft. He’s in stall two on the far side which could be the wrong place to be, but it’s always worth having one on each side and French Fifteen could be ideally housed in stall 16.
The rest of tomorrow’s card looks fiendishly difficult, but FIORENTE is worth backing each-way in the Jockey Club Stakes at 2.30pm. Sir Michael Stoute is a master at improving horses between three and four and this Monsun colt was second behind Nathaniel in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot last summer on soft ground.
It’s a hot race tomorrow and Andre Fabre’s Meandre is the big danger. He won the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last summer before finishing a decent sixth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Anything Fabre sends over here has to be respected, but I’m not sure Meandre will love the ground and he’s likely to be short enough.
Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden and St Leger winner Masked Marvel have to shoulder 5lb penalties and that, combined with the ground and shorter trip, could find them out.
Goodwood plays second fiddle to Newmarket tomorrow, but Sir Henry Cecil looks to have found the ideal opportunity for VITA NOVA in the Listed Daisy Warwick Stakes (2.15pm). She has at least a stone in hand with all bar one of her rivals on official figures, goes on the ground and has won first time up for the last two seasons.
Aidan O’Brien saddles hot favourite Maybe in Sunday’s QIPCO 1000 Guineas and the unbeaten daughter of Galileo will be hard to beat. She handles any ground, stays the trip and has reportedly been working well at home. I think she’ll win, but instead of backing her at 5/4 with Coral, I’m taking a chance on French raider MASHOORA at 8/1. She also has no ground worries and her ability to move up the gears could prove decisive.
The British Champions Series is also launching a free racing fantasy game which will include the chance to win a VIP trip to QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot. You have to select five trainers and five jockeys which are fixed for the course of the season and then pick two horses to run for you in each race. Log-on to www.britishchampionsseries.com for more details.
Follow me on Twitter @BillEsdaile for all my views on this weekend’s racing.
● Pointers…
VITA NOVA 2.15pm Goodwood (tomorrow)
FIORENTE e/w 2.30pm Newmarket (tomorrow)
ABTAAL e/w 3.10pm Newmarket (tomorrow)
FRENCH FIFTEEN e/w 3.10pm Newmarket (tomorrow)
MASHOORA e/w 3.15pm Newmarket (Sunday)